Tallinn's population to hit 480,000 by 2050—but not all districts will thrive

A demographic shift is reshaping Estonia's capital. With aging residents and uneven district growth, Tallinn's future looks both promising and precarious.

, and Administrator

2026 May 23 . 8:01 PM

1 min read

The image shows a graph with different colored lines representing the housing prices to per capita... — The image shows a graph with different colored lines representing the housing prices to per capita income ratios by metro area. The graph is accompanied by text that provides further information about the data.

Tallinn's population to hit 480,000 by 2050—but not all districts will thrive

Tallinn’s population is set to grow steadily over the next few decades, according to updated forecasts. By 2050, the city will have nearly 480,000 residents—an increase of 22,000 from today. However, not all districts will see the same trend, with some areas facing decline while others expand rapidly.

Earlier projections in 2020 suggested Tallinn would gain 90,000 residents by mid-century. The latest figures, though more modest, still show a clear upward trend. By 2035, the population is expected to reach around 463,000, adding 6,200 people to the current total.

From 2035 onwards, growth will slow slightly but remain steady, averaging 1,070 new residents each year. Until then, the city will expand by about 620 people annually. The age balance will shift significantly. The share of residents aged 60 and over is projected to rise to 31% by 2050. Meanwhile, the proportion of those under 19 will drop to 16% by 2035 and stay at that level for the following 15 years. Not all districts will follow the same pattern. Lasnamäe and Nõmme are expected to shrink, with Lasnamäe losing nearly 20,000 residents by 2050. In contrast, Kesklinn and Haabersti will grow the fastest. Kesklinn, in particular, may overtake other areas to become the second most populous district by mid-century.

The updated forecast paints a picture of gradual but uneven growth across Tallinn. While the overall population will rise to just under 480,000 by 2050, some districts will shrink as others expand. The city’s demographic shift will also mean a larger elderly population and a smaller share of younger residents.