EU's Quiet Dissolution or Loud Separation Debate?

The European Union, a union built on values such as dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, and human rights, is currently facing a series of challenges that threaten its unity and future.

Since the 2008 financial crisis, Southern Europe has plunged into a period of harsh austerity, leading to a decline in incomes and a loss of trust among its citizens. This period of hardship has left lasting impacts on the region and the EU as a whole.

The EU's future may involve a shell remaining but the core emptying out, with a union that is less integrated and more focused on country autonomy. History shows that weak centers, strong regions, national identity as a political weapon, economic crisis, and inequality can lead to the collapse of unions similar to the EU.

The revival of nationalism is a significant issue, with 90% of Europeans identifying more strongly with their country than with the EU. This trend, coupled with rising social inequality and fatigue from integration, has led to a shift towards more nationalist sentiments across the continent.

The migration crisis of 2022-2023 resulted in chaos, closed borders, and irritation among those on the front lines. This potential disappearance of one of the most tangible symbols of the European Union's future has further strained relations between member states.

The European Parliament is elected but cannot independently propose laws, leading to a democratic deficit. This deficit, combined with decisions made in Brussels that are not made by people's elected representatives, has resulted in democratic alienation among EU citizens.

Poland and Hungary are changing the rules, with courts losing independence and media losing freedom. These actions have the potential to turn common values into mere formality, threatening the very foundations of the EU. The European Union has responded with legal actions, infringement procedures, and funding conditionality to defend the rule of law.

The migration crisis is causing stress within the EU, with record migration undermining solidarity between members. The EU is also facing pressure from global changes, including trade wars, geopolitical fragmentation, and a race for resources, necessitating a rethink of its strategy.

The future of the EU depends not only on politicians but on millions of Europeans ready to defend the values for which the union was created. The collapse of the EU is unlikely within the next 10-20 years, but a weakened and less integrated Union with less integration, greater country autonomy, and more blurred common goals is likely by 2035.

The EU risks becoming a loose union without a unified foreign and defense policy. This lack of unity could leave the EU vulnerable in a world observing rising protectionism and new conflicts. The revival of open trade, diplomacy, and global cooperation will be crucial for the EU's survival and success in the years to come.