Derby Race for Kentucky: Odds for Forte Lower Following Success in First Yearly Appearance
Stallion Forte proved his worth last Saturday, surging ahead to become the top pick for this year's Kentucky Derby. The prodigious Pletcher-trained colt dominated the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park, distance-wise and point-wise.
With a 4 1/2-length advantage, Forte, the 1-2 betting favorite, trailed the leading pack for most of the 1 1/16th mile race before Jr. Ortiz, jockey extraordinaire, skillfully maneuvered Forte to the outside as they approached the final turn. From there, Forte easily outpaced Cyclone Mischief, Rocket Can, and Mage to claim a stunning victory in 1:43.12.
Forte's accomplishment was even more impressive given that he had just returned from a four-month hiatus following his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile victory in November.
Pletcher, a two-time Kentucky Derby champion, expressed no surprise at the colt's winning streak, which now includes four consecutive races, all of them being graded stakes.
"We carefully planned this, putting him on a training program that would get him in peak condition and still leave room for further growth and development," Pletcher shared about the break. "I believe we succeeded in accomplishing that."
With Saturday's win, Forte raked in 50 points toward entry into the May 6 Kentucky Derby. He now stands at 90 points, easily securing his spot in the race. The Chestnut colt, sired by Violence, is set for one more race, the Florida Derby in Gulfstream, prior to the journey to Kentucky.
Odds makers in Vegas took quick notice of Forte's triumph. Last week, his odds were +750 on the Kentucky Derby futures board, plummeting to +500 before Circa closed betting on Friday. By Sunday, betting resumed, and he dropped further to +400, or 4-1.
Despite Forte's evident capabilities, his racing style raises concerns for the Derby. Forte prefers to trail behind the lead runner by two to four lengths, saving his energy for the final stretch. This method works well in smaller fields but potentially becomes a hindrance in the highly competitive Kentucky Derby, which can accommodate up to 20 horses.
Ortiz Jr., the four-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey, has yet to make it to the money in his six Kentucky Derby mounts.
Only one other horse is offered odds of less than 10-1 on the Circa board, aside from Forte. That's Arabian Knight (+925), who clinched the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park on January 28 but has yet to qualify due to previously being trained by Bob Baffert, who is currently suspended from Louisville's track.
Arabian Knight was transferred to Tim Yakteen's stables before Churchill Downs' February 28 deadline to become eligible for the Derby. He is expected to compete next in the Arkansas Derby or the Santa Anita Derby, both offering 100 qualifying points to the winner.
Two other horses also earned 50 qualifying points through Derby prep races on Saturday.
The underdog Raise Cain, a 23-1 bet, pulled off an astounding victory in the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct in New York. With Lezcano as his jockey, the Ben Colebrook-trained colt bobbed and weaved through the field to ultimately win by 7 1/2 lengths.
Colebrook believed the wide open 15-horse field was advantageous for Raise Cain.
"I thought it was a chaotic race," Colebrook said. "Raise Cain is very composed and will respond to whatever the rider asks of him. He can find gaps and dodge other horses if needed."
Meanwhile, Yakteen secured another victory with Practical Move's win in the San Felipe Stakes. After clinching the Los Alamitos Futurity in December, Practical Move rallied from behind in the pack on the backstretch to win by 2 1/2 lengths.
In contrast to most of Yakteen's Derby contenders, Practical Move didn’t come from Baffert's stable.
"He's an exceptional horse," Yakteen shared after the race. "His strength and maturity from a two-year-old to a three-year-old is astounding. Everything has unfolded perfectly."
Yakteen mentioned that he expects Practical Move to have one more race before reaching Louisville.
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