Winning Your March Madness Bracket: Effective Tips and Strategies
When it comes to college basketball's March Madness, if you're new to the scene or haven't been following closely this season, you may need some guidance to fill out your bracket for the 2023 tournament. Here are some tips and pointers to assist you if you're participating in a betting pool.
The current college basketball season has been quite unpredictable. Unlike in previous years, where a clear-cut dominant team existed, there are only two teams on DraftKings' college basketball betting board with odds less than 10-to-1: the Houston Cougars and Alabama. The Cougars are the clear favorites to win the championship at +450, and the Crimson Tide are the second favorites with odds of +650.
Three other teams with excellent chances are the Purdue Boilermakers, UCLA Bruins, and the Kansas Jayhawks. All three are #1 seeds but have different odds: Purdue has +1000 chances, whereas UCLA, despite being the second-ranked team by Ken Pomeroy, is a #2 seed with the same odds. Kansas, who won the title last year, has +1200 odds to repeat.
Considering the current odds, it's rare for a team to win consecutive championships. The last team to achieve this was Florida, back in 2006 and 2007. Before that, you'd have to look at Duke's back-to-back championships in 1991 and 1992. UCLA, led by legendary coach John Wooden, won seven titles in a row between 1967 and 1973; however, with today's larger pool of teams and other factors, it's unlikely we'll see such a feat again.
Enjoy the Experience
Participating in a March Madness pool can be both enjoyable and engaging, so don't forget to have fun! These pools are social events, offering a low-cost way to connect with friends, family, or coworkers. Watching the games together is a great bonding experience.
The tournament's duration also makes it unique. While other sports events are typically one-night affairs, the March Madness tournament stretches over three weeks, allowing ample time for the stress of your bracket to build as the stakes rise.
In my own experience, I've witnessed some unforgettable moments. Six years ago, my friend's six-year-old daughter won our pool. How? She picked teams based on their animal mascots! And she celebrated when Villanova emerged victorious in 2016.
My Aunt Henrietta is a devoted Catholic who has always picked Catholic schools and universities. In 2018, she became the pool champion when Villanova once again claimed the championship, and notably, she also predicted that Loyola Chicago would reach the Final Four. A special run led by a lucky charm—98-year-old nun Sister Jean, a former Chaplain for the team—saw the #11 seed reach the Final Four.
Start With Your Champion
Pick your champion first, and then determine the two teams in the championship game. If you're entering multiple brackets, try to mix things up by choosing different champions and Final Four teams.
Next, consider the Elite 8. In larger pools, you should aim for an 8-for-8 in correctly predicting the Elite 8 teams.
After that, look at the Sweet 16. This is your best opportunity to incorporate a potential Cinderella story. However, be wary since the Sweet 16 is the round when underdogs usually meet their end. So, only predict one or two upsets from #12 seeds or higher.
The Pool's Size Matters
Before joining a pool, determine the estimated number of participants. If the pool has over 1,000 entrants, you may want to consider creating multiple brackets to increase your chances of victories. Don't overlook the significance of those seemingly innocuous first-round upsets; they can significantly impact your chances in large pools.
DraftKings has a college basketball betting board that's useful for seeing the current odds for each team before filling out your bracket. Use it to help make your decisions.
Puppies are cute. Cats are too. The 2023 March Madness championship is just around the corner! So, fill out your bracket, have some fun, and may the best team win!
If you find yourself in a small pool with less than 25 entrants, you might find success by making conservative choices and entering just once.
Know Your Opponents
Before settling on your picks, try to identify the host of the pool and others participating. By understanding their loyalties, you can make more informed selections.
For instance, someone running a pool from Chicago full of Northwestern graduates might have many entries backing the Wildcats for deep runs. Likewise, pool participants from Los Angeles could support their local team, UCLA, without worrying if others will also pick them.
In my experience, Kentucky fans and graduates often fill the rosters of my March Madness pools, as well as Seattle locals rooting for the Zags. This awareness helps me consider their choices when making decisions.
If I decide to pick Kentucky or Gonzaga, I know I won't be alone in doing so. I'd need to ensure that the rest of my entry is solid with an accurate Final Four prediction and possibly all of the Elite Eight teams.
Beware of Cinderella Stories
It's exciting to cheer for an underdog team, but be careful not to completely rely on an unexpected powerhouse for your win.
In previous years, teams like George Mason (2009), VCU (2011), and Loyola Chicago (2018) fascinated viewers with their Cinderella stories, making it deep into the tournament. Although these teams reached the Final Four, none of them went further.
While a Cinderella team can be tempting, it's essential to recognize when their run will end.
Embrace Chalk
When comparing the seeded teams, it's simple to rely on the seedings to make your selections. But relying solely on the seedings can be a downfall in years with many upsets.
In 1982, a #1 seed won March Madness 26 times. Since 2000, they won it 16 times. But be wary of picking all #1 seeds for the Final Four: it's wise to have one or two but also include a #2 or #3 seed and consider a risky lower seed.
#12 vs. #5: A Classic Upset
The #12 seed has a decent track record of success against a #5 seed. Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, #12 seeds won 53-95 overall, which translates to around a 36% success rate.
In the modern era (since 2000), only four years did not witness a #12 seed making it past a #5 entry. In 2021, the #12 seeds included Oral Roberts, VCU, Drake, and Charleston, all teams with strong records.
Don't Underestimate #11, #13, and #14 Seeds
In recent times, the #11 seed has become a hotspot for underdog teams reaching the Final Four. Since 2006, teams like George Mason (2006), VCU (2011), Loyola Chicago (2018), and UCLA (2021) all performed admirably in March Madness.
Since 1985, #13 seeds have pulled off 31 first-round upsets against #4 seeds, resulting in a 31-113 record and a 21.5% success rate. Since 2008, they've achieved successful opening-round upsets 13 times.
The underdogs have excelled against the powerhouses when it comes to long-range shooting in college basketball. In fact, the #14 ranked team has defeated the #3 seed a stunning 22 times, including six wins in the last nine tournaments when Harvard, underdogs by double-digits, pulled off unexpected victories like when they took down New Mexico back in 2013. Abilene Christian recorded a victory in 2021 as the last team to achieve this feat. Interestingly, in 2015, both Georgia State and UAB knocked off #3 seeds as two #14 seeds caused major upsets.
Teams are increasingly relying on 3-pointers for a significant portion of their offense, and this can help them mount a comeback if they find themselves trailing early in a game. It's no surprise, then, that March Madness typically sees a few surprises courtesy of smaller schools that catch fire from beyond the arc and stun the mighty teams from the power conferences.
Leading the way in long-distance shooting is Colgate, with a fantastic 40.7% success rate. Michigan State follows closely behind with 40.1%, and they're joined by Utah State, who boast a 39.8% accuracy from downtown.
Other intriguing teams with a knack for shooting from the perimeter include:
- Florida Atlantic (#9 seed) with a 38% 3-point conversion rate
- Howard (#16 seed) who are an impressive 38% accurate from beyond the arc
- UNC Asheville (#15 seed) who's well-known for their 39% success rate from 3
Missed Free Throws Can Make or Break a Game
Shifting attention to free throw shooting, even small errors can make a big impact in these high-pressure games. Just think of the irritation you feel when those crucial free throws start to miss, potentially swinging the outcome of the match in favor of your opponent.
Here are the top teams in free throw accuracy:
- Villanova (leading with a remarkable 82.3% hit rate)
- Miami (Florida) (#10 with an impressive 78%)
- Oral Roberts (#14, 77.6%)
- Utah State (#21, 77%)
And the surprise entry? Colgate. They're the best 3-point shooting team in the nation, yet they only manage to convert 65% of their free throws, ranking them #326 in all of Division 1.
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