Washington Post Survey Data Shows Trump Leading by Ten Points; Bookmakers Have a Narrower Gap
A recent poll by ABC/Washington Post indicates that President Joe Biden could potentially lose against former President Donald Trump if they were to face each other in a presidential election this coming November. The poll shows Biden with a ten-point deficit if the election was held at that moment. However, political analysts from the news organizations consider this poll an "outlier" and state that it significantly differs from other recent studies regarding a potential rematch between the two leaders. They mention that Biden's performance in handling the economy, border security, and Ukraine as issues where he underperforms with likely voters.
Despite the poll, both the Post and ABC advise against interpreting the results too extensively. The media groups shared that the election contest is virtually tied according to recent polls, while Biden's and Trump's coalitions in this survey differ unusually, indicating it is likely an outlier.
An average of the most current polling data, as seen on Real Clear Politics, shows a margin of 1.6 points in favor of Trump in a hypothetical Biden vs. Trump 2024 general election.
Illegal betting on elections in the United States is forbidden, as gaming regulators have objected to such requests. They claim that it could potentially jeopardize the democratic process. Nevertheless, bookmakers in the UK, like William Hill, offer political betting lines. William Hill has Biden's reelection odds at 7/4, which equates to a 36.4% chance. Biden is slightly favored over Trump, whose odds are 2/1, implying a 33.3% chance.
Political wagering exchanges in the US, such as PredictIt, enable peer-to-peer betting on politics. Biden's shares in these exchanges trade at 43 cents, while Trump's are at 39 cents, making Trump the second-favorite. Other notable names include California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) who stands at 11 cents and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) at 6 cents, with Vice President Kamala Harris trailing at a nickel. The winning shares are redeemed at $1 when the market settles.
In 2019, data from Smarkets and Betfair, two other betting exchanges that allow bets from US citizens, show similar odds. Back in the fall of 2019, a poll suggested that Trump was at a disadvantage in the general election race, and his shares on PredictIt were trading at the same value, 43 cents.
The current polling and betting information indicate a high possibility that Biden may only serve a single term as president. However, much can and likely will change between now and the election on November 5, 2024.
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Source: www.casino.org
