Predicted outcome - The anticipated growth in first-year students in North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) by 2035 will be substantial.
In a projection by the Standing Conference of Ministers of Education and Cultural Affairs (KMK), the number of first-year students in North Rhine-Westphalia is predicted to reduce drastically by 2026 but will then rebound mightily within a decade. By 2026, the count is estimated to decrease from 87,700 this year to 70,700, primarily due to the return to a nine-year Gymnasium (G9). From 2027, a consistent surge in the number of freshmen students is forecasted to escalate to nearly 100,000 by 2035 in Germany's most populous federal state, as stated in Berlin on Tuesday. Nevertheless, based on the forecast, the figure would be lower in ten years than in 2017, when close to 102,000 new students were enrolled.
As per the information, this predicted decline in the nationwide number of first-year students by 2026 is chiefly attributed to the fact that Bavaria, North Rhine-Westphalia, and Schleswig-Holstein have reverted from 12 to 13 years of education until the Abitur. This shift resulted in fewer students with university entrance credentials exiting school, directly affecting the number of new students.
In NRW, the switch to G9 commenced for grades five and six of the Gymnasium during the 2019/2020 academic year. The initial freshman cohort following G9 is anticipated to complete their school days with the Abitur in 2027. In line with the KMK projection, the number of new students in NRW is predicted to grow by 12,600 to 83,300 in that year.
The KMK forecast also suggests that the number of first-year students in Germany will experience a substantial upsurge over the next ten years. A drop to 451,100 is expected by 2026 due to the transition to G9. Subsequently, a rise to 526,000 is anticipated for 2035. This would be about 7500 more than in the preceding peak year of 2011, as per the report.
Following KMK projections, the proportion of individuals with a university entrance qualification in the corresponding age group population will increase from nearly 50% in 2021 to 52% in 2035. These calculations are based on the KMK's September 2023 projections for the number of pupils and graduates holding higher education entrance qualifications and entrance qualifications for universities of applied sciences. During this period, the KMK foresaw an increase in the number of pupils from eleventh million today to a dozen million in 2035. The motivations cited were immigration and changes in birth rates.
KMK communication featuring link to forecast 1
1: Link to KMK forecast
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Source: www.stern.de
