The American League Wild Card and AL West divisions will be decided in the final weekend.
With the final weekend of Major League Baseball's (MLB) regular season approaching, three teams are vying for the remaining two spots in the American League (AL) wild card: the Toronto Blue Jays, Houston Astros, and Seattle Mariners.
The Tampa Bay Rays (97-62) have already secured the first AL wild-card spot but won't have their ace pitcher, Shane McClanahan, in the postseason as he underwent Tommy John surgery.
Meanwhile, two additional AL wild-card berths are at stake, and if the season ended today, the Blue Jays (88-71) and Astros (87-72) would qualify. However, the Mariners (86-73) are on the postseason cusp, trailing the Blue Jays by two games and the Astros by a single game.
The AL West division title is up for grabs, with the Texas Rangers (89-70) holding a two-game lead over the Astros and a three-game edge over the Mariners. The team that wins the AL West gains an automatic berth in the playoffs. A scenario also exists where the AL West could send three teams to the playoffs if the Blue Jays falter, and the Mariners win their weekend series against the Rangers.
Blue Jays in the Driver's Seat
The Blue Jays close out the season with a three-game home series against the Rays in an AL East divisional showdown. The two teams have a 5-5 record against each other in the season. The Blue Jays are currently in the second AL wild-card position and have a one-game advantage over the Astros and a two-game margin over the Mariners. They also have a tiebreaker edge over the Astros with a 4-3 record against them in 2023.
The Blue Jays can seal the wild-card spot with two wins or two losses by the Mariners.
The Blue Jays were an AL wild-card team in 2022 and are heavily favored to make the postseason at -2000 odds, while their chances of missing the playoffs stand at +1100 odds. FanGraphs estimates the Blue Jays' probability of making the playoffs at 93.7%.
In the AL pennant odds, the Blue Jays are a long shot at +800 odds. They are +1800 odds to win the World Series. They're looking for their first championship since winning back-to-back championships in 1992 and 1993 when they defeated the Philadelphia Phillies with Joe Carter's walk-off home run in Game 6.
Astros Seek Back-to-Back Division Titles
The Astros occupy second place in the AL West, following the Texas Rangers (89-70) by two games. The Rangers, who recently lost pitcher Max Scherzer to a muscle injury, can claim the division title with two victories or two losses by the Astros.
The Rangers are the betting favorite to win the AL West at -750 odds, while the Astros carry a +900 odds to win a third straight division crown.
The Astros face the Arizona Diamondbacks (84-75) in a three-game series this weekend, who currently hold a National League (NL) wild-card spot, which they may lose depending on the NL wild-card race's outcome.
The Astros are -255 odds to reach the playoffs and defend their World Series title. They're +210 odds to miss the postseason if the Mariners perform well over the weekend. According to a playoff projection by FanGraphs, the Astros stand a 76% chance of reaching the playoffs.
In AL pennant odds, the Astros are +650 odds. They've reached the ALCS in each of the previous six seasons. The Astros are seeking a third straight AL pennant and have won the AL pennant four times since 2017.
The Astros are +1300 odds to win the 2023 World Series, and FanGraphs projects they have a 9.8% chance of repeating. The Astros serve as the defending champions and have won the World Series twice since 2017 and were runners-up in 2019 and 2021. Winning the World Series in consecutive seasons is a challenging feat, and the New York Yankees were the last team to pull it off when they achieved a three-peat in 2001.
Mariners Fighting for Their Playoff Lives
The Mariners let a three-game lead in the AL West slip away, placing them on the brink of postseason contention. They enter the final weekend of the season just one game behind the AL wild card, trailing the Astros by a single game and the Blue Jays by two games.
The Mariners conclude their season at home against the Rangers, a team they've had difficulty against, with the Rangers dominating the Mariners in 10 divisional games with an 8-2 record.
If the Mariners sweep the Rangers, they'll put themselves in a prime position to claim an AL wild-card berth. Furthermore, they're rooting for the Diamondbacks and Rays to subdue the Astros and Blue Jays in their respective weekend series.
The Mariners stand at +150 odds to make it to the playoffs. You can bet against them at -180 odds. FanGraphs calculates the Mariners' chance to make the playoffs at 32.9%.
The Mariners, who joined the American League as an expansion team in 1977, have made it to the playoffs merely five times - one of them being last year as wild-card contenders. With odds of +3000 to win the World Series and +1500 to win the AL pennant, it's not looking good for this team. The Mariners have never won an AL pennant, and they're the only team in MLB history that has never reached the World Series.
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Source: www.casino.org
