PredictIt opens new market after legal success

Political betting market PredictIt has added several new markets in recent weeks, following the company's recent legal victories in its ongoing showdown with federal regulators.

Apr 8, 2024
2 min read
A screenshot from the PredictIt website shows markets for President Joe Biden and former
A screenshot from the PredictIt website shows markets for President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, who will be their respective parties' 2024 presidential


Limited offer

Learn more

Political betting market PredictIt has added several new markets in recent weeks after scoring legal victories in its ongoing battle with federal regulators.

In late July, a federal court allowed PredictIt to remain online while the site appealed a request by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to shut it down. A jury on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit ruled 2-1 that PredictIt and its users may ultimately win.

However, the future of the site ultimately rests with the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Texas, which has yet to set a timetable moving forward.

Before the July ruling, PredictIt had largely avoided taking new bets, except for a handful of existing markets related to the 2024 presidential election. That begins to change this month with the launch of eight new markets tied to Republican primaries and a handful of other statewide races.

Presidential Election, Statewide Campaign

The first new PredictIt contract will be finalized this November with the outcome of the Kentucky Governor’s race. Incumbent Gov. Andy Beshear (D) is seen as a favorite among traders, with a Democratic win trading at 68 cents on Wednesday.

PredictIt traders also believe former President Donald Trump (R) is the likely winner of next year's first two Republican nomination contests. On Wednesday, a Trump win in the Iowa caucuses was trading at 70 cents, while a Trump win in the New Hampshire primary was trading at 72 cents.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) is considered the most likely Iowa runner-up as his stock price is at 36 in another market related to this issue cents.

PredictIt users can also bet on who will be the Republican vice presidential nominee, and opinions are even more divided. Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy is trading at 17 cents on the market, while South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem is trading at 14 cents, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott is trading at 13 cents, and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is trading at 10 cents.


Looking ahead to the general election, bets have been accepted on two state presidential elections and one Senate election so far.

PredictIt users predict the Democratic presidential candidate will win both Wisconsin and Georgia in 2024, with both companies trading at 58 cents on Wednesday.

The unusual Arizona Senate race is the first congressional race of 2024 to be bet on PredictIt. Incumbent Sen. Kirsten Sinema left the Democratic Party last year and has not said whether she will seek re-election as an independent. Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego has entered the race and is considered the favorite to win the party's nomination, while former Gov. Kari Lake, who supports Trump, is "seriously considering" a run Republican nomination.

PredictIt users gave the Democratic advantage in Arizona, with the stock trading at 53 cents on Wednesday, compared with 34 cents for a Republican win and 12 cents for an independent.

Read also:



Limited offer

Learn more