Potential Demise of All Las Vegas Stage Shows: What Lies Ahead?
Entertainment demand in Las Vegas has returned to pre-pandemic levels, according to casino and independent producer announcements. However, this information might not be entirely truthful.
The desire for tickets to high-profile music events and concerts, with numbers continuously growing every year, is on the rise. Additionally, the allure of NFL games and large-scale indoor concerts, due to the opening of Allegiant Stadium, has attracted more tourists to the Strip.
On the flip side, Broadway-style productions that were popular from around 2006 (the time "Phantom: The Las Vegas Spectacular" debuted at the Venetian) do not seem to be experiencing a post-pandemic resurgence. In fact, these shows appear to still be grappling with difficulties.
Indicators of Struggle
Casinos don't release earnings data for their shows, so analysts and industry experts have to rely on other indicators of success or failure.
Premature closure is a significant red flag. During the last quarter of 2022, five Las Vegas Strip shows unexpectedly closed their doors before the new year. "Bat Out of Hell — The Musical" at Paris Las Vegas, Criss Angel’s "Amystika" at Planet Hollywood, "Extravaganza" at Horseshoe, "Legends in Concert" at the Tropicana, and Xavier Mortimer's magic show at The Strat all took their final bows.
The musical prowess of "Hamilton" creator Lin-Manuel Miranda wasn't enough to keep "Freestyle Love Supreme" at the Venetian for over two months.
A concerning development is the availability of monthly payment plans exclusively for ticket buyers of Vegas production shows. Offered for "Awakening" at Wynn Las Vegas, for Cirque shows, and other smaller production shows, it provides various payment options for different lengths of time. Ticketmaster offers four, six, or 12-month payment options for all ticket price points. Vegas.com, on the other hand, offers plans starting from $14 a month.
After examining over a dozen music residencies and sports events, no similar payment plans were found.
"Awakening" represents one of four recent production shows testing this new market. It replaced "Le ReCODE: Le Reve*" at the Wynn, which helped finance its $120M production cost. Yet it was shut down for two weeks — less than three months after its November 7 premiere — so producers could revamp the show.
Currently, according to ticket seating charts, it's playing to mostly half-empty audiences, despite generally positive reviews.
"'Awakening' committed a fundamental mistake," Mike Weatherford, former theater reporter and critic for the Las Vegas Review-Journal, commented. "It's really easy to increase your prices. However, it's hard to decrease them. So, when you open at $200 and then you lower your price, it carries the scent of failure. They'll try to manage this through some kind of discounting instead or this layaway concept."
Exiting the Stage
Is the Vegas production show becoming obsolete? Is it the new showgirl show?
The main challenge for such shows, according to Weatherford, is fiercer competition. From 2000 to around 2013, superstar music residencies often meant choosing between whichever artist was performing at Caesars Palace (usually either Cher, Elton John, Rod Stewart, or Celine Dion), Carlos Santana at the Hard Rock, or Barry Manilow at the Las Vegas Hilton. Now, contemporary artist residencies have become a standard feature, not only at Caesars (Adele) but at Resorts World (Katy Perry, Luke Bryan), Park MGM (Usher, Bruno Mars, Jonas Brothers), and Planet Hollywood (Miranda Lambert, Keith Urban).
"And Allegiant Stadium is hosting more shows than I thought possible," Weatherford said. "At first, I thought, who's still active except for the Rolling Stones and a few other artists that can fill stadiums? And then BTS, the K-pop group, sells out four nights there."
For a recent article in KNPR’s Desert Companion magazine, Weatherford looked at Friday, March 3 through Sunday, March 12, which brings both NASCAR and the Pac-12 Men’s Basketball Tournament to Vegas. Discounting Adele's residency – since those tickets are difficult to obtain – Weatherford easily counted more than 100K non-production show seats available during that period.
The opening of the MSG Sphere by U2 in September will add another 17.5K superstar residency tickets to that count several times a week.
"It's a matter of budget priorities and what funds are left over to spend on these general-interest shows," Weatherford said, titling his piece: "Is the Evolution of Vegas Entertainment Leaving Big Productions Behind?"
"If you're visiting town to watch basketball or NASCAR, you've already paid a premium for both your tickets and your hotel rate. If you have any money left over, and you can locate the tickets, then Usher, Keith Urban, Katy Perry, and Adele are performing residencies, and you have two nights of Jimmy Buffett.
"Are you really going to see 'Awakening'?"
The Decline of Ticket Booths
Arriving in Las Vegas without a plan used to be a common approach. By the mid-2000s, over a dozen ticket booths lined the Strip, offering thousands of half-price tickets for same-day shows. Today, there are only four left.
"Online platforms have become the norm for purchasing tickets, according to Weatherford. These days, people often arrive in town with plans already made. It's unlikely that many spontaneously decide to catch a high-priced production show at the last minute, even if flexible payment options are available."
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