Potential betting fraud in Germany's top soccer league
In a recent analysis by Bielefeld University, they discovered peculiar betting habits during specific Bundesliga games from 2010/2011 to 2014/2015. This study, collaborated with the universities of Pennsylvania and West Virginia, found that matches overseen by three nameless referees had higher than usual betting activity. They focused on Betfair, a British bookmaker, to study over/under bets, as these bets depend on the total number of goals scored.
Unusually high betting levels alone don't immediately suggest match-fixing. The study (PDF) depicts that games involving these referees had a higher-than-average number of goals and more bets placed than typical. Other influencing factors, like important derby matches, were removed from the statistics.
While these patterns align with proven betting scandals in American basketball, the authors of the study are careful not to jump to conclusions. Prof. Dr. Christian Deutscher, sports economist at Bielefeld University and co-author, explained:
"It's not possible to say this is definitely betting fraud or betting fraud would be present here. But you can observe statistical characteristics that you'd also expect if there were betting fraud." Prof. Dr. Christian Deutscher, Bielefeld University
The DFL, who organizes the Bundesliga, has not found any cause for concern and points to its safety measures, initiated in response to the Robert Hoyzer case. The alarm systems of Sportradar, a security provider hired by DFL since 2007, have not failed during that time.
Although this argument seems flimsy, it's possible that the referees' unique style of match management could account for the results. Strict interpretation of rules could lead to fewer scoring opportunities. However, it's also possible that they favor goal-scoring, allowing more goals than usual when deciding on offside issues.
Those familiar with sports betting can identify the pattern and place higher stakes based on it. Referees wouldn't necessarily be aware of their impact since discrepancies only become noticeable when analyzing numerous matches. Furthermore, betting manipulation might not have taken place in this case as there were no definite attempts at swaying the game. Instead, it could be up to the bookmakers to identify the pattern and adjust over/under bets' odds for these referees.
Over/under bets on 2.5 goals
The unique appeal of these bets lies in their susceptibility to manipulation. Out of the 1251 examined Bundesliga matches, an average of 2.92 goals were scored. Only 44% had 2 or fewer goals, while 56% had 3 or more. This makes minor, visually insignificant manipulations easier. Assigning penalties to both teams can inflate the goal count inconspicuously and without harming a single team.
If Team A is winning 2:0 over Team B, the referee could seize this moment to award a penalty to Team A, shifting the outcomes from "Under 2.5" to "Over 2.5". Although the scoreline wouldn't change much, the penalty kick would be unremarkable. Even if the kicker fails, the referee could then grant a penalty to Team B, if the situation seems credible. This method could appear fair since the procedure seems balanced.
Despite the study's uncertainty, potential witnesses are required to prove fraud. Dr. Markus Knasmüller, an expert, advised WDR:
"We still need witnesses to prove manipulation." Dr. Markus Knasmüller
These revelations do raise suspicions but have yet to prove anything definitively.
For Knasmüller, there's not much that argues against the possibility of betting fraud, and coincidence can't be completely ruled out either. However, he couldn't comment on whether this would lead to any initial suspicions under criminal law or require the involvement of a public prosecutor's office. We'll have to wait and see if the study's findings are substantial enough.
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Source: www.onlinecasinosdeutschland.com
