Political Gamblers Dismiss Trump Verdict, Bets Imply Convict Will Retake Office
Last Thursday, former US President Donald Trump was found guilty on all 34 charges brought against him by New York prosecutors in a case involving a $130,000 payment to ex-porn actress Stormy Daniels to keep quiet about their alleged affair. Prosecutors convinced the jury that the payment led to the falsification of business records and the possible manipulation of the 2016 election outcome.
Trump maintains his innocence, criticizing Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg (D) for conducting a political witch hunt. Trump, previously a casino mogul, now faces the label of convicted felon. However, his legal team is planning to appeal the decision.
The case centered around Trump's former lawyer, Michael Cohen, who asserted that he arranged the bribe with Daniels in exchange for her promise not to reveal their intimate relationship. Trump cast doubt on Cohen's credibility, calling him a "sleazebag" after Cohen admitted to lying under oath.
Trump insists the payment to Daniels wasn't "hush money" but a "nondisclosure agreement," which he says is "totally legal."
2024 Odds Unaffected
Following the verdict, UK bookmakers, where election betting is legal, and US-based political betting exchanges experienced significant activity related to the presidential election. Despite the flurry of bets, though, there was little change in the odds for the 2024 candidate, with Trump remaining the frontrunner.
William Hill had Trump's winning odds at 8/11 before the verdict, and after, they still have him with a 58% implied chance of winning. President Joe Biden's odds were at 11/8 or a 42% implied chance before the verdict, and they haven't moved significantly after.
Nonetheless, online political exchanges saw some shifts. Smarkets saw a drop in Trump's winning likelihood from about 55% to around 50%, and Biden's at 40%. Betfair, on the other hand, witnessed an increase in Trump's implied winning odds from 49% to an estimated 51%.
Unexpected Results
Despite Bragg's satisfaction with the outcome of the trial, the prosecution has had an unforeseen effect – a surge of donations to Trump's campaign.
In addition to billionaires Miriam Adelson and Stephen Schwarzman pledging their support, Trump's campaign announced it received $34.8 million from small donors in the hours after the New York jury decided.
Read also:
- Leverkusen claims victory in the cup, securing a double triumph.
- Alonso achieves a double victory after consuming a German brew.
- Does the SVolt factory in Saarland face stability issues?
- Furor surrounding Sylt scandal footage