NFL Bets Examined: Mainly, Unders in Primetime Scoring Reach 22-7
The NFL has been seeing a lot of issues with offenses this season, as a number of quarterback injuries have forced teams to start their backups. This has resulted in many games with low point totals, making gambling on the "under" in points wagers a successful strategy in the first nine weeks of the season. In 9-primetime games, there have been only 22 wins for the "over" considered with a success rate of 75.8%. For the entire season, gambling on the "under" has had a result of 83-52-1, representing a 61.5% success rate.
Week 9 had a total of 11 wins for the "under" in out of 14 games. Three primetime games were included here: Thursday Night Football, Sunday Night Football, and Monday Night Football. The Pittsburgh Steelers barely managed to win against the Tennessee Titans on Thursday Night Football, with a total points score of 36.5 over/under. Sunday Night Football featured an exciting game between Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals and Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills, with a points total of 51.5 over/under. The Bengals emerged as winners, with both teams combining for a total score of just 42 points. The Los Angeles Chargers emerged victorious against the New York Jets on Monday Night Football. With Aaron Rodgers out, the Jets' offense continues to struggle under Zach Wilson's leadership. The 41-point points total closed in, and the Chargers and Jets combined for a total of only 33 points, completing the third triumph of the primetime unders in Week 9.
The Struggling Offenses
Five teams in Week 9 scored less than six points, while ten others scored 17 or fewer. Of the six teams that scored more than 26 points per game this season, the Miami Dolphins lead the way with an average of 31.7 points each game. They are followed by the Philadelphia Eagles (28.0), Dallas Cowboys (27.5), San Francisco 49ers (27.3), Buffalo Bills (26.7), and Baltimore Ravens (26.6). These six teams have played a total of 52 games this season, with just one starting a backup quarterback, Sam Darnold, who filled in for Brock Purdy when the Niners' starter sustained a concussion.
The NFL averages 21.7 points per game this season, and 17 teams achieve less than this. A total of 12 teams' scores are below 20 points per game, and five teams' average scores are under 17 points per game. The New York Giants have the lowest-scoring team in the league, with an average of 11.2 points per game. The New England Patriots (15.0), New York Jets (16.5), Pittsburgh Steelers (16.6), and Arizona Cardinals (16.8) round off the bottom five offenses of the year.
This year's collective offense is tied for the lowest-scoring NFL season in the last ten years. With the average combined offense being 330 yards per game, this is surprising considering how much the NFL has favored a pass-first philosophy over the past decade.
Backups and Rookies Galore
In Week 9, around eight out of the 14 games had a backup quarterback starting. There were also eight different rookies in action, with Will Levis for the Tennessee Titans, Jaren Hall for the Minnesota Vikings, Clayton Tune for the Arizona Cardinals, Tyson Bagent for the Chicago Bears, C.J. Stroud for the Houston Texans, Bryce Young for the Carolina Panthers, Tommy DeVito for the New York Giants, and Aidan O'Connell for the Las Vegas Raiders.
Due to a season-ending injury to Kirk Cousins in Week 8, the Vikings had no other option but to start Jaren Hall. Hall played his first career game in Week 9 against the Atlanta Falcons and got a concussion, with Josh Dobbs, who was acquired from the Arizona Cardinals five days earlier, taking over. Dobbs led the Vikings to a win, as they won 31-28. This was one of the few games that hit over the week.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals were forced to start rookie Clayton Tune while they waited for the return of their original starter, Kyler Murray, who tore his ACL last year. Unfortunately, the Cardinals were shut out, causing the points "under" to come through for the Tune's debut.
The Indianapolis Colts started the season with a rookie, Rainey Johnson, but quickly changed their minds and went with Gardner Minshew when a disaster struck. Anthony Richardson, the fourth-overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, had a disastrous shoulder injury that forced him out for the season. Johnson got promoted to the starting role, but he injured his shoulder. In his place, Gardner Minshew took over. He will remain as the starter while Richardson recovers from surgery.
The Week 10 Prediction
In week 10, the odds makers are aware that the unders have been lucrative overall this season, so they set six out of 14 games' points totals under 40 points. There are two primetime games this week where bettors hope the unders trend continues.
In the tenth week, the NFL has some noteworthy matchups. The Chicago Bears will play the Carolina Panthers on Thursday Night Football, where the points total is set at 39. Both teams feature rookie quarterbacks - Bagent and Young.
For Sunday Night Football, the Las Vegas Raiders face the New York Jets. The two backup QBs, one being a rookie, make this game an unappealing prime-time event. The Jets/Raiders game's total sits at the lowest of Week 10 with an over/under of 36.
Lastly, Monday Night Football brings the Buffalo Bills hosting the Denver Broncos with a points total of 47.5.
Least Reliable Teams for Unders: Giants, Steelers
Nine teams make the shortlist for the worst performance in the 2022 NFL season for under bets. Wagering against these teams delivered a 75% success rate through the first nine weeks.
The New York Giants (2-7) hold an 89% success rate as they're 8-1 with under bets. Unfortunately, their season looks bleak after losing starter Daniel Jones to a season-ending ACL injury. Now, rookie DeVito from Illinois will be taking his place when they face the Dallas Cowboys in Week 10.
The Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3) show up next with a 7-1 record for under bets. While fans aren't satisfied with offensive coordinator Matt Canada, the Steelers have a winning record despite their low-scoring offense.
Four additional teams have a 7-2 record with under bets: the Minnesota Vikings (5-4), Las Vegas Raiders (4-5), New Orleans Saints (5-4), and the Kansas City Chiefs (7-2).
Three teams sport a 6-2 record for under bets, including the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5), Tennessee Titans (3-5), and Los Angles Chargers (4-4).
To add some perspective, the Chicago Bears (2-7) and Indianapolis Colts (4-5) rank as the top "over" teams for 2022, coming in at 6-3 each.
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Source: www.casino.org
