MLB Division Wagers: Intense Competition in the NL Central
The NL Central battle is heating up as only two games separate the top three teams. The Milwaukee Brewers are leading with 65-57 records, followed by the Chicago Cubs with 63-59 and the Cincinnati Reds at 63-59. With less than a quarter of the season left, the stakes are high as the division winner automatically advances to the playoffs.
According to the MLB futures board, the Brewers have the best odds of winning the NL Central at -155, with the Cubs ranked second at +180, and the Reds at +500. Also on the line is a spot in the National League wild-card round, as the second-place finisher may still make it.
Currently, the Philadelphia Phillies, San Francisco Giants, and Cubs would be in the wild-card round, while the Miami Marlins, Reds, and Arizona Diamondbacks are on the bubble, all separated by a single game. There's even a possibility that three teams from the NL Central could qualify for the playoffs, with two securing wild-card spots.
The St. Louis Cardinals earned the NL Central title last season with 93 wins. However, they're currently in last place with a 54-68 record.
Brewers Fighting for Third Title Since 2018
The Brewers' division lead shrank to two games following their series sweep by the LA Dodgers. This weekend, they'll complete a nine-game road trip against the Texas Rangers, who are first in the AL West.
The Brewers have lost 15 games since the All-Star break, eight of which were against top-placed teams like the Dodgers and Atlanta Braves. After their road trip, they host a five-game homestand and visit the Cubs in Chicago to end August.
Despite not having any starting pitchers with double-digit wins, Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta each have nine victories. Christian Yelich is in the best statistical form since 2019, with 16 home runs, 66 RBI, and a .286/.372/.456 batting line.
Based on FanGraphs' projections, the Brewers have a 59.7% chance of winning the NL Central. They have a 73.6% chance of reaching the playoffs, but just a 3.1% probability of claiming the World Series.
The Brewers' odds of making it to the playoffs are -300, while missing out is +250, as per a popular prop bet from DraftKings. They rank 10th on the MLB futures board to win the 2023 World Series at +2800 odds, and +1200 to claim their first NL pennant.
Cubs on a Roll
The Cubs turned things around, going 20-10 since mid-July. Cody Bellinger, picked up by the Cubs this off-season, is an important factor with his impressive .327/.379/.554 slash line and a career-high 17 stolen bases. He's also close to surpassing last season's home run and RBI totals, with 18 home runs and 59 RBI so far.
Justin Steele completely turned around his season, going 6-0 before the All-Star break and boasting a 13-3 record, 2.79 ERA, and 1.17 WHIP. He leads the Cuba's pitching staff, with the team winning his last five outings and 10 of the last 11.
The Cubs have a 29.6% chance to capture the NL Central, per FanGraphs. They're 53% likely to reach the playoffs and only have a 1.2% chance to win the World Series.
The Cubs hold -130 odds to qualify for the playoffs and +110 odds to not make it, according to DraftKings. Their last NL pennant win was in 2016, and they're +2000 odds to be back in that position. They have +5000 odds of claiming the World Series.
The Cubs play six more games against the Brewers, including a potential decider in Milwaukee at season's end. They also take on the Reds for a four-game series over Labor Day weekend.
The fresh-faced lefty pitcher, Andrew Abbott, made an impressive start in the MLB, going scoreless until his fourth match. The Reds elevated him from Triple-A in June and he didn't let them down. They won all six games that Abbott played in the first round, and the newcomer had two 'no decision' credits to his name. So far, he has a record of 8 wins in 14 games, maintaining a 2.99 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP.
The upcoming month of August hasn't been kind to the Reds, who experienced a loss in 10 out of their last 14 games. They are due for a 10-game trip on the road after this, but they often tend to perform better outside their home ground (33-27) than within it (30-32).
The team doesn't have any further matches against the Brewers and only four more against the Cubs.
FanGraphs's most recent projection puts the Reds' chances of winning the NL Central at 10.7%. They also have a 22.7% possibility of reaching the postseason, while their odds of winning the World Series are extremely low at 0.5%.
As per a betting offer by DraftKings, the Reds have +160 chances of making it to the playoffs. On the contrary, they are heavy favorites with -190 odds to not make it to the postseason.
It's been 33 years since the Reds last won the NL pennant. The 1990 team went on to win the World Series that year, making it their last championship since the glory days of the Big Red Machine in the mid-1970s. According to betting odds, the Reds have +1600 chances of making it to the NL pennant round and a whopping +7000 odds of winning the World Series.
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Source: www.casino.org
