Mid-Term Elections Forecast: A Look at Political Gambling
### Top Picks for Mid-Term Elections Betting
- Mark Kelly (D) to win Arizona Senate @ 1.73 - Bet365
- Katie Hobbs (D) to win Arizona Governor @ 2.25 - Bet365
- John Fetterman (D) to win Pennsylvania Senate @ 1.36 - Bet365
- Josh Shapiro (D) to win Pennsylvania Governor @ 1.36 - Bet365
- Republicans to win House, Democrats to win Senate @ 2.0 - William Hill
The mid-term elections, which occur outside of a Presidential year, are the biggest betting event in US politics. The event is currently underway, following a summer of primaries.
What's at Stake?
The mid-terms involve all 435 seats for the House of Representatives, gubernatorial races in 36 states, and 35 of the 100 seats in the US Senate. These events are scheduled for November 8th and come with significant implications for President Biden's ability to deliver legislation. Additionally, potential presidential candidates for 2024 may emerge from the Governor races.
Betting Opportunities
Bets are placed on which party will win a majority in either the Senate or the House. William Hill offers a market on the double, with odds of even money or 2.0 for Republicans winning the House and Democrats winning the Senate. If the Senate is tied 50-50, as it currently stands, a Democrat win is considered as Vice President Kamala Harris holds the casting vote.
Differences in Betting for Senate and House
The varying outcomes for the Senate and House races can be attributed to the differing electorates and dynamics. All Congressional districts are up for voting, but only 34 states vote for the Senate. Also, House districts are often manipulated along partisan lines and are increasingly gerrymandered, while Senate races cover the entire state.
Mid-Term Elections Trends
Historically, mid-term elections for the House work against the party of the president due to increased motivation from the opposition. During President Obama's tenure, his party faced heavy losses in both mid-terms. However, when President Trump was in office, the Democrats experienced a "Blue Wave" and won 235 seats in the House.
Nevertheless, these two outcomes should not be seen as correlating, as demonstrated by the 2018 elections. Whereas the House was won by the Democrats, Republicans increased their Senate tally to 53 seats from 51. A similar situation stands now, with Fivethirtyeight's model giving them a 20% chance of holding onto their majority in the House and a much higher 59% chance of securing the Senate.
Potential Challenges for Democrats
A potential challenge for Democrats is the anticipated backlash against President Biden. This has been reflected in poor approval ratings, which have dropped below 40%. However, recent victories on various issues, such as falling gas prices and bipartisan bills passing, have led to a slight reversal in momentum.
Despite this, generic ballot polls still favour the Republicans, although the Democrat lead has reduced considerably. Fivethirtyeight's model rates the chances of Democrats retaining their House majority at just 20%.
Abortion and the January 6 Committee Hearings
The Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v Wade has emboldened Republican activists, but the policy is generally unpopular with the majority of voters. This has energized Democratic campaigns. Meanwhile, the January 6 Committee Hearings have dealt a devastating blow to the Republicans, who are divided on the issue. The hearings have been highly publicized and serve as a rallying point for Democrats.
Although a core group of their activists continue to support Trump and reject the election results from 2020, this stance directly conflicts with middle-of-the-road voters.
Many election denial extremists and believers in QAnon have won primary elections, harming their party's image and potential in crucial races.
American elections typically revolve around unaffiliated individuals rather than intense partisans.
Let's talk about two crucial swing states, where both the Senate and Governorship are up for grabs.
Remember, Biden only managed to win the election by narrowly securing Pennsylvania and Arizona.
In the midterm elections, Democrats should be susceptible to a strong challenge in these states, but that doesn't seem to be the case.
Pennsylvania and Arizona Poised to Remain Democratic
In Pennsylvania, the Republican candidate Doug Mastriano is one of those extreme candidates.
A QAnon conspiracy theorist who attended Trump's rally at the Capitol on January 6 and denies the validity of Biden's election win. He's currently trailing Josh Shapiro by 8%.
For the Senate seat, Trump's pick 'Dr.' Mehmet Oz won the nomination.
He's been exposed as a New Jersey resident and a dual national, with Turkey. He's trailing John Fetterman by 11%.
This would be a win for the Democrats, as it's an open seat following Republican Pat Toomey's retirement.
Bookmakers Bet365 offer odds of 4/11 for each of these race leaders. While it's a challenging bet, it's almost unthinkable that either Democrat will lose.
In Arizona, the party has veered to the right recently, deviating from the late John McCain's invincible status in Senate races.
Their 2022 candidates love to criticize the McCain legacy—which makes no sense in a state where Independents adored him.
Kari Lake is running for Governor, pitted against Katie Hobbs. In the Senate race, Blake Masters goes up against Democrat incumbent Mark Kelly.
Both candidates are extreme, QAnon-believing election deniers who hold right-wing views. Their Secretary of State candidate Mark Finchem is a long-standing Oath Keepers member—a far-right violent terror group whose leaders have been charged with sedition for their role in the January 6 riots.
The betting scenario doesn't reflect the nature of the candidates.
Bet365 offers 8/11 for Kelly, who leads by an average of 8.6% and often hits 49% or higher, and 5/4 for Hobbs, who's also ahead in the polls and consistently achieving high forties.
If Kelly and Fetterman end up winning the Senate seats for the Democrats, the overall tally would shift to 51-49 in their favor.
The Republicans would need to gain two seats elsewhere to take control. This is possible, but not easy or straightforward, given the current political climate.
The most vulnerable Democrat strongholds are in Georgia and Nevada. In the latter state, which is a true toss-up, Catherine Cortez Masto faces off against Adam Laxalt.
Bet365 rates the underdog Democrat but the polls show her with a 1.5% advantage on average.
As for Georgia, I prefer incumbent Raphael Warnock at odds of 10/11 against Herschel Walker.
Walker's lack of political expertise is becoming evident, and his campaign has already faced several controversies, including domestic violence allegations.
Outside these states, no significant changes are anticipated, and any upsets could actually benefit the Democrats.
They have a clear front-runner in New Hampshire with Maggie Hassan, while two probable, if not certain, Republican defenses are Wisconsin and Ohio, by Ron Johnson and J.D. Vance, respectively.
In summary, I predict it will either result in a 51-49 Democratic victory or another 50-50 deadlock, with Nevada determining the balance of power.
My advice is to bet on even money for a Republican House and a Democratic Senate with William Hill.
Suggested Bets
- Mark Kelly (D) to win Arizona Senate @ 1.73 – Bet365
- Katie Hobbs (D) to win Arizona Governor @ 2.25 – Bet365
- John Fetterman (D) to win Pennsylvania Senate @ 1.36 – Bet365
- Josh Shapiro (D) to win Pennsylvania Governor @ 1.36 – Bet365
- Republicans to win House, Democrats to win Senate @ 2.0 – William Hill
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