Las Vegas Myth Fixed: Slot Machines Can "Expire."
Editor's Note: Vegas Mythbusters now releases new entries every Monday, with a bonus Friday flashback edition. Today’s entry in our ongoing series originally appeared on August 5, 2022.
One of the most persistent myths in the casino world is that if a slot machine hasn't hit a jackpot in a while, it's more likely to hit the jackpot because it's "expired." Take a look at any slots bank with a lot of activity and you'll likely see players playing music trying to figure out which machine will pay out the big winnings next.
“That’s not the case,” said Anthony F. Lucas, a professor of casino management at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas and a former gaming industry operations analyst. “Every possible jackpot is on every spin. All have the same programmed chance of happening." There is no cumulative memory of previous spins, nor any form of elimination of the possible outcomes of a single spin. "
7-7-7 411
Every slot machine in every casino in the United States is a video game, a so-called virtual reel, whose results are controlled by a microprocessor. The microprocessor contains a random number generator algorithm that determines the outcome of each spin.
The algorithm is set by the slot machine manufacturer, so no operator can change it at will to make payouts. Introduced in 1986 by slot machine manufacturer International Gaming Technology, the technology has become ubiquitous. Even old-school-looking slot machines use it. This is because all slot machines are required by law to store audit data that older mechanical machines cannot track.
According to Lucas, slot machine results are "technically" not random because some symbols are less likely to appear than others. "But they're random," he explains. "Probabilities are static. They never change. The chance of winning is always the same on every spin."
Seemingly counter-intuitive, if you play just one round after a machine pays out a million-dollar jackpot to someone else, your chances of hitting the million-dollar jackpot are "exactly the same" as the lucky player before you.
"Most people just can't accept it psychologically," Lucas said. In fact, this flawed logic has proven detrimental to some slot machine operators in the past. For example, if a regular player walks into a bar in Nevada (which is legally limited to 15 machines) and sees that the jackpot is set to a minimum value (say, $10,000), then he knows that he just won, Because the new jackpot has been reset. They're more likely to leave that bar and play somewhere where they think the machines are conducive to winning.
"To combat this perception, many neighborhood bars are using hidden meters," Lucas said. "They redirect a small portion of each coin one meter away where no one can see it. So when the jackpot reaches $14,000, it resets to around $12,510 due to the secret amount he accumulated, and Not $10,000.”
Wheel of Deception
Since players who believe they can somehow gain an advantage with luck are likely to play more, slot machine manufacturers help operators exploit this flaw in human logic in every possible way. In fact, the entire gaming experience on video slots is an illusion, with symbols appearing in front of players in real time, just like the electromechanical machines of the past.
But when you press the dial, all the symbols you see are already set," Lucas said. "The random number generator is always running even if the game isn't running. Pressing the spin button stops the game and instantly determines which symbol is displayed. The spin and stop symbols on the video screen are just a look. "
So instead of pressing a button, just pull the slot lever. Lucas says this affects the results as much as pressing the elevator call button repeatedly: "However, you often see people touching the screen and doing all kinds of funny things to try to influence the results."
Even virtual roulette is designed to make players believe that winning is more likely than it actually is. "You think, 'Well, the wheel has about 20 stops or something like that,'" Lucas explained. "There are three reels." So if there is a jackpot symbol on every reel, it would be 20 to the power 3. So I have a one in 8,000 chance of winning the jackpot, right? "
"Wrong. Because on virtual reels, slot machine manufacturers can get 50 or 100 stops instead of 20, which gives them considerable leeway in determining the odds of winning, as long as each spin delivers the same random win Chance."
One-way slot has been manipulated
"The only way to rig a slot machine is to always give the casino an average financial advantage in the long run," Lucas said. "While I wouldn't use the word 'manipulation,' that's too harsh."
Under Nevada law, casino profits cannot exceed 25%. But in most cases, role-playing games account for between 4 and 10 percent, according to Lucas. A 10% house edge means that in the long run, the operator keeps an average of $10 for every $100 wagered. These percentages are set at the factory and are provided to the operator as an option on every machine sold.
Operators are reluctant to reveal which slot machine has better odds or more often because no one will play the other slot machines. Even average slot machine players can't tell the difference, according to a 2019 study by Lucas published in the International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management.
Lucas' team compared two identical slot machine games, one with a high house edge and one with a low house edge. Lucas said the reason why players can't tell the difference is because the player level results for the two games are so similar. "Anything can and does happen in the short term," Lucas explained, adding that the findings are supported by six other peer-reviewed academic studies. Simply put, players don't have enough time, money, or experimental discipline to see a significant difference in the house edge of reel games over the long term.
"When this study was first published, some people were outraged," Lucas said. "You wouldn't believe some of the nasty emails I get from people saying they can tell the difference. I think the result is that they feel like one of their core beliefs has been challenged."
Playing slot machines, like any game of chance, is an experience that encourages mystical thinking.
"In fact, it rewards that kind of thinking," Lucas said. "It has to do with the overall psychology of the players. Casinos sell two things: hope and variety in the game. If you bet one dollar, you can easily win a hundred thousand dollars. It's a combination of difference and hope.
"But of course that's rarely the reality."
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Source: www.casino.org
