The President and Foreign Minister pass away. - Is the conflict over power in Iran intensifying?
The demise of Ebrahim Raisi (63) and Hossein Amir-Abdollahian (60) has left a significant void in the Iranian government, as they were both staunch supporters of the regime.
Unlike the president and foreign minister, the nation's foreign policy is not determined by regime leaders - rather, it lies in the hands of the "revolutionary leader" Ali Khamenei (85) and the Revolutionary Guards.
As Raisi and Amir-Abdollahian fell, questions arose regarding who might succeed them in the long run and what implications this would have for the inner workings of the regime.
Previously seen as a potential contender for the role of revolutionary leader, Raisi, the former death judge, boasted a long history of loyalty, serving the regime through the execution of countless lives. Rumors swirled that he may have even had a shot at this seat after Khamenei's passing.
However, as chief justice, Raisi had significant influence over the makeup of the Guardian Council, which in turn dictated access to the Council of Experts - a group of 88 individuals who elect the revolutionary leader.
Though there were suspicions he might ascend to the highest position, there were also speculations that Raisi might have been too excessively devoted to Khamenei to hold his own against the formidable Revolutionary Guards.
One other potential successor to Khamenei's throne is Khamenei's son Mojtaba (55), who is intimately connected in the regime's clerical elite.
Mojtaba's corrupt, power-hungry, and manipulative demeanor presents him as a shrewd contender in the Islamic Republic, his traits valued more than any formal religious training he may possess.
Similar to his father, Mojtaba too lacked the title of Ayatollah, which is technically a condition for becoming the revolutionary leader.
Who will next become president?
Now, attention turns to the candidates for the presidential position. Interim President Mohammed Mokhber (68), who had previously gained powerful control over the enormous state-owned company, Sedat, is rumored to have ambitious dreams.
Another potential candidate is Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghulibaf (62), a former general in the Revolutionary Guards, who ceased his campaign in favor of Raisi in the previous election.
Amir-Abdollahian, the deceased foreign minister, also seemed to have aspirations for higher-ranking posts, having proven his loyalty to the regime for many years through his work in the Foreign Ministry. He also showed his commitment by orchestrating a cartoon competition denying the Holocaust.
Amir-Abdollahian's keen eye for strategy made him a valuable asset to the regime's power hierarchies, earning him close ties with the deceased Quds Force leader Qassem Soleimani (†62) and other notable generals in the Revolutionary Guards.
Will new uprisings break out?
The death of the despised president was met with celebration throughout the country: citizens erupted in fireworks, distributed sweets, and captured scenes of themselves drinking alcoholic beverages in jubilation.
However, it still remains to be seen if public demonstrations will actually occur. Previously, they have stemmed from causes unrelated to the loss of a regime enforcer - such as the repression of women, electoral fraud, corruption, and high prices - all culminating in the demand for regime annihilation.
In response, the security forces swarmed major urban areas as a safety measure, while the authorities warned social media users against publishing content liable to incite unrest.
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Source: symclub.org
