In eastern Ukraine, Russia is daily acquiring strategic advantages, causing unease over the accuracy of Ukrainian military updates.
Russia's daily advancements demonstrate a new speed on the battlefield since the fall of Avdiivka in February. While the progress is modest, ranging from a few hundred meters to a kilometer, it is happening in multiple areas simultaneously.
Ukraine is experiencing losses while facing criticism from influential military bloggers and analysts concerning their official battlefield updates.
Russia's primary focus is on the Donetsk region. Ukrainian DeepState monitoring group's daily updates show Russian forces advancing in eight separate locations along a 20-25km stretch of frontline within 24 hours. Ukrainian army chief Oleksandr Syrskyi confirmed Russian control over the settlements of Semenivka and Berdychi via a Telegram post on Sunday. Russia deployed four brigades for the offensive in this area, according to Syrskyi.
Semenivka and Berdychi are just two of the settlements reported to be under Russian control. Soloviove is also believed to be in Russian hands, with Keramik partially controlled as well.
Myroshnykov, a Ukrainian military blogger, mentioned the withdrawal in the Donetsk operational zone.
Russian forces have made progress in Krasnohorivka, an industrial town. They have entered from the south and east, sieging the large brick factory. One Russian military blogger described the factory's significance: "The liberation of the refractory plant would actually mean the fall of the Krasnohorivka fortification, as the northern outskirts of the settlement are filled with private buildings, which will be too difficult to defend if the plant is lost."
Further north, Russian forces have achieved their first successes in the Kharkiv region in three months. A Ukrainian army spokesman described Russian forces as being "significantly more active" over the past day. DeepState assessed a Russian advance of between one and two kilometers into the village of Kyslivka.
In this region, the frontlines have been relatively stable since Ukraine recaptured a significant portion of Kharkiv region in late summer 2022.
Criticism of Official Military Communications
With withdrawals and losses mounting, military bloggers like Myroshnykov and DeepState have targeted official Ukrainian communications, criticizing the armed forces for inaccurate updates from the frontlines.
DeepState, in a Telegram post, shared a graphic video of a Russian soldier being killed in a drone strike in Soloviove and used the clip to argue that isolated incidents could distort the bigger picture.
DeepState maintained that the media is propagating a false reality, while in fact, Russian troops have been in control of Ocheretyne village’s center, including the railway station, for at least three days.
While Ukrainian spokesperson Nazar Voloshyn claimed on Ukrainian TV that two-thirds of Soloviove and Ocheretyne villages were under Ukrainian control, DeepState believed otherwise. According to them, Russian troops have been in control of the center of Ocheretyne village for days.
DeepState rebuked what they perceived as incompetence in some spokespersons.
Ukrainian army chief Syrskyi addressed these concerns in his Telegram post on Sunday, acknowledging the confusion caused by dynamic changes in positions. He also admitted to the deterioration of Ukraine's situation: "The situation at the front has escalated. Trying to seize the strategic initiative and break through the front line, the enemy has concentrated its main efforts in several directions, creating a significant advantage in forces and means."
Russian forces made small advances in the region in late January and early February, but DeepState now assesses a new advance of between one and two kilometers into the village of Kyslivka. Overall, the frontlines in this region remained stable since Ukraine regained large swathes of Kharkiv region in 2022.
Intense armed clashes have been reported near a huge brick plant. A Russian military blogger discussed the battle's significance, stating, "The capture of the refractory plant would effectively translate into the downfall of the Krasnohorivka fortification, as the northern outskirts of the settlement are made up of private residences, which would be incredibly difficult to defend if the plant is surrendered."
Short-term challenges
Several international experts and Ukrainian authorities anticipate Russia's current increased tempo as a prelude to a large-scale offensive campaign this spring. It's also presumed that Moscow wants to utilize its substantial ammunition advantage before US supplies – approved last week after six months of political standstill – arrive at the frontlines.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) predicts that Ukraine will encounter more temporary difficulties in the upcoming weeks, but without major strategic reverses.
They stated, "Russian troops are likely to achieve considerable tactical achievements in the coming weeks, as Ukraine waits for US defense assistance to reach the front lines, but they will remain unable to overwhelm Ukrainian lines."
Ukraine's other major quantitative flaw, which also contributes to recent military shifts, is manpower. A new mobilization law is set to take effect next month, aimed at streamlining conscription processes. However, Kyiv has been hesitant to explicitly state how many more soldiers are required, while Moscow continues to raise numbers.
Rob Lee of the Foreign Policy Research Institute stated on Twitter, "The quality (of Russian troops) undoubtedly differs, but their numerical advantage is a significant problem."
He further added, "Without its manpower advantage, Russia's artillery and airpower advantage would not be sufficient for it to make progress on the battlefield. The relative manpower situation is most likely the most influential element that will shape the course of the war, especially if Russia can maintain the pace of recruiting 20-30k per month."
Yulia Kesaieva, Maria Kostenko, and Victoria Butenko were among those who contributed to this report.
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Source: edition.cnn.com
