Exceeding Nagelsmann's Capabilities: According to ChatGPT, the German national team should field its players for the European Championships
June 14th marks an exciting moment: The 2024 European Championship is just around the corner, and Germany is buzzing with enthusiasm for some exhilarating matches on home soil. Coach Julian Nagelsmann announced the squad a few days ago, sparking endless discussions.
Is the 2024 EM a significant leap forward?
Every football enthusiast has their thoughts on players and their expected performances at the upcoming home tournament. Opinions vary among experts like Lothar Matthäus and Michael Ballack. Now, a fresh perspective enters the debate: ChatGPT, an AI that bases decisions on data and algorithms. But could an artificial intelligence make better calls than a seasoned coach like Julian Nagelsmann?
Under Nagelsmann, the German team has experienced victories and disappointments. Despite incredible talent, results have fallen short of expectations. Germany encountered challenges against the USA, Mexico, Turkey, and Austria, even suffering losses against Turkey (2-3) and Austria (0-2).
But the team's form is improving. Germany triumphed over France (2-0) and beat the Netherlands (2-1) at home. The encounter with Ukraine ended in a 0-0 draw. Before the European Championship, there's a home match against Greece (07.06.2024) remaining.
Despite victories, critics criticize a lack of consistency and question some tactical moves by the coach. Nagelsmann revealed the preliminary squad for the team. But let's first examine ChatGPT's lineup.
How would ChatGPT strategize for the trophy?
ChatGPT works on data-driven decision-making, considering factors like player form, statistics, and opponent analysis. Unlike human coaches, who also weigh in emotional and psychological aspects, ChatGPT relies solely on objective data. This can be both an advantage and a disadvantage, as emotional intelligence and people skills are crucial in critical situations. Based on its analysis, ChatGPT suggests a classic 4-3-3 formation.
The Goalkeepers
To determine the goalkeeper, ChatGPT evaluates factors such as current form, the number of saves, and consistency in crucial games. Based on recent statistics, Marc-André ter Stegen could be the first-choice keeper due to his consistency and high save rate. Manuel Neuer, renowned for experience and leadership, would be the backup, with Kevin Trapp (33, Eintracht Frankfurt) as the third-choice due to his strong performances in both the Europa League and Bundesliga. In contrast to Nagelsmann, ChatGPT would only nominate the usual trio of goalkeepers.
In the defense, ChatGPT prefers a system that offers defensive strength and positional flexibility. An optimal back four, according to the AI, would consist of Antonio Rüdiger, Niklas Süle (28, Borussia Dortmund), Robin Gosens (29, Union Berlin), and Joshua Kimmich. Behind them, Matthias Ginter (30, SC Freiburg), David Raum (26, RB Leipzig), Thilo Kehrer (27, AS Monaco) with his versatility, Lukas Klostermann (28, RB Leipzig), Freiburg's defensive stalwart Christian Günter (31, SC Freiburg), and Jonathan Tah reach the squad. Even with ChatGPT, Mats Hummels remains an outside contender.
- Antonio Rüdiger (31, Real Madrid)
- Niklas Süle (28, Borussia Dortmund)
- Robin Gosens (29, Union Berlin)
- Joshua Kimmich (29, FC Bayern Munich)
- Matthias Ginter (30, SC Freiburg)
- David Raum (26, RB Leipzig)
- Thilo Kehrer (27, AS Monaco)
- Lukas Klostermann (28, RB Leipzig)
- Christian Günter (31, SC Freiburg)
- Jonathan Tah (28, Bayer Leverkusen)
The Midfield
ChatGPT would also differentiate in the midfield from the actual DFB coach. Ilkay Gündogan, Jamal Musiala, and Kai Havertz would be included. Unlike Nagelsmann, the AI would opt for Leon Goretzka (29, FC Bayern Munich), the technically skilled Florian Neuhaus (27, Borussia Mönchengladbach), the creative Julian Brandt (28, Borussia Dortmund), and the experienced Emre Can (30, Borussia Dortmund). In ChatGPT's lineup, Joshua Kimmich would be in defensive midfield, with Leon Goretzka and Ilkay Gündogan in the central control area. Nagelsmann's choice for a dynamic and offensive midfield setup can lead to a greater attacking variety but may also leave the defense vulnerable. ChatGPT's approach might offer more balance.
Here's a paraphrased version of the text:
- Ilkay Gündogan (33, FC Barcelona) - The first name on our list is Ilkay Gündogan, currently playing for FC Barcelona.
- Jamal Musiala (21, FC Bayern Munich) - Moving on to Jamal Musiala, who is now making waves at FC Bayern Munich.
- Kai Havertz (24, FC Arsenal London) - Next up, we have Kai Havertz, currently showcasing his skills at FC Arsenal London.
- Leon Goretzka (29, FC Bayern Munich) - Leon Goretzka, a reliable player for FC Bayern Munich, is the fourth name on our list.
- Florian Neuhaus (27, Borussia Mönchengladbach) - Florian Neuhaus is the fifth name, currently giving his best for Borussia Mönchengladbach.
- Julian Brandt (28, Borussia Dortmund) - Borussia Dortmund's Julian Brandt is the sixth name we have.
- Emre Can (30, Borussia Dortmund) - Emre Can rounds up our list, currently representing Borussia Dortmund.
AI's Preferred Strikers
However, when it comes to the AI's preferred strikers, there are significant differences. Only two names, Leroy Sané and Thomas Müller, match Nagelsmann's actual choices in attack. The AI values Serge Gnabry's goal threat, Timo Werner's speed, Karim Adeyemi's creative offensive drive, and Kevin Volland's versatility more than the national coach. Here's the AI's preferred lineup:
- Leroy Sané (28, FC Bayern Munich)
- Thomas Müller (34, FC Bayern Munich)
- Serge Gnabry (28, FC Bayern Munich) - Gnabry would be on the right, Sané on the left, and Werner in the middle.
- Timo Werner (28, Tottenham Hotspur)
- Karim Adeyemi (22, Borussia Dortmund)
- Kevin Volland (31, Union Berlin)
Nagelsmann's Preliminary EM Squad: Will It Lead to the Big Win?
In an exciting PR stunt, a significant portion of the EM squad was already leaked before the official announcement - by kebab vendors, renowned musicians, and even the neighbor's grandmother. This leak only served to fuel the Germans' anticipation for an exciting summer fairy tale. Nagelsmann's preliminary squad consists of 27 players. To comply with the allowed 26 players, Nagelsmann will have to drop one before the EM. The nomination process was not without controversy. The following players are expected to lead Germany to victory at the Olympic Stadium in Berlin and secure the first title since the 2014 World Cup.
The Goalkeepers
Nagelsmann caused the first big surprise with his goalkeeper choices: Instead of the usual three, he nominates four goalkeepers. Nagelsmann justifies this decision with the importance of training quality and relief for the starting goalkeeper Manuel Neuer and his backup Marc-André ter Stegen:
"I think it's very important to have goalkeepers in training, especially when shots are practiced, when chain behavior is trained. It shouldn't always be Manuel, and it shouldn't always be Marc."-Julian Nagelsmann, coach of the German national team, goal.com
- Manuel Neuer (38, FC Bayern Munich)
- Marc-André ter Stegen (32, FC Barcelona)
- Alexander Nübel (27, VfB Stuttgart)
- Oliver Baumann (34, TSG Hoffenheim)
The Defense
Nagelsmann makes less controversial decisions in defense, where he can rely on high quality. The only potential weak point could be the non-nomination of Mats Hummels (35, Borussia Dortmund), who led his team to the Champions League final against Real Madrid this season as a rock in the defense.
- Nico Schlotterbeck (24, Borussia Dortmund)
- Jonathan Tah (28, Bayer Leverkusen)
- Antonio Rüdiger (31, Real Madrid)
- Waldemar Anton (27, VfB Stuttgart)
- Maximilian Mittelstädt (27, VfB Stuttgart)
- David Raum (26, RB Leipzig)
- Benjamin Henrichs (27, RB Leipzig)
- Robin Koch (27, Eintracht Frankfurt)
- Joshua Kimmich (29, FC Bayern Munich)
The Midfield
Leon Goretzka (29, FC Bayern Munich) might have suffered the greatest setback due to Julian Nagelsmann's squad nominations. Once hailed as one of Germany's greatest talents, Goretzka, a box-to-box player for FC Bayern Munich, did not make the squad after a lackluster season.
- Aleksandar Pavlović (20, FC Bayern Munich)
- Jamal Musiala (21, FC Bayern Munich)
- Toni Kroos (34, Real Madrid)
- Pascal Groß (32, Brighton & Hove Albion)
- Kai Havertz (24, FC Arsenal London)
- İlkay Gündoğan (33, FC Barcelona)
- Florian Wirtz (21, Bayer Leverkusen)
- Robert Andrich (29, Bayer Leverkusen)
The Strikers
A Bayern star and former DFB regular is missing from the strikers, too: Serge Gnabry (28, FC Bayern Munich) missed the cut.
Thomas Müller (34, FC Bayern Munich)Niclas Füllkrug (31, Borussia Dortmund)Deniz Undav (27, VfB Stuttgart)Maximilian Beier (21, TSG Hoffenheim)Leroy Sané (28, FC Bayern Munich)Chris Führich (26, VfB Stuttgart)
Final Thoughts: Which team has a higher chance of winning the EURO title?
Both teams have their merits and flaws. Determining which team has the higher chance of clinching the title is quite tricky and hinges on the progression of the tournament and the players' form that day. Nagelsmann's squad might have an edge due to their human instinct and strategic adaptability, while ChatGPT's team is renowned for data-driven judgments and impartial player assessments.
In the end, integrating both approaches - Nagelsmann's human insight and emotional intelligence with ChatGPT's data-driven analysis - might present the best chances of securing the title. AI and machine learning already have a presence in football. Matthias Bauer (27, Data Analyst for the DFB) recently stated:
Examining international football, Barcelona and Liverpool are ahead. They have set up divisions with data scientists and mathematicians who exclusively support the coaching teams. We have been addressing this issue for about a year now and are attempting to stay competitive with the Bundesliga teams. Together, we will catch up, as we are currently pooling resources in German football.”– Matthias Bauer, Data Analyst for the DFB, DFB**
In the coming weeks, we will find out if Julian Nagelsmann's selection was sound, or if the DFB should lean more on artificial intelligence for the next prominent tournament, the 2026 World Cup in the USA, Mexico, and Canada.
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