Wheat shortage threatens Pakistan as Punjab floods devastate about one third of the nation's supply

In the heart of South Asia, Pakistan is grappling with a significant wheat shortage, a situation exacerbated by the devastating floods that have swept across the region.

For the past five years, Pakistan has relied on imports to meet its wheat needs. However, in an unusual turn of events, the country managed to avoid imports in 2024, thanks to a bountiful harvest that surpassed the five-year average. This year, unfortunately, the situation is different.

The Pakistan Business Forum (PBF), a prominent organisation representing and supporting the business community of Pakistan, has reported that the floods in Punjab have severely affected wheat stocks in central and south Punjab. The PBF's Chief Organizer, Ahmad Jawad, has stated that as much as 30% of Pakistan's wheat stock has been lost.

These floods have not spared Pakistan's eastern Punjab province, where fields of rice, maize, cotton, sugarcane, vegetables, and wheat storages have been damaged. The floods have affected 3.9 million people and displaced 1.8 million.

Muzzammil R. Chappal, chairman of the Cereal Association of Pakistan (CAP) and a trader, has confirmed the current shortage, estimating that Pakistan is short of approximately three million tons of wheat. Chappal attributes this shortage to farmers who used at least 2.5 million tons of wheat for feeding poultry and animals.

The floods have also driven up the price of wheat. In major cities like Karachi, Quetta, and Peshawar, the price of a 100-kilogram bag of wheat has surged by about 40 percent to Rs9,000 ($32).

The situation has led to concerns about food security and market stability. In response, Muzzammil Chappal has written to the food ministry, seeking permission to import 500,000 tons of wheat per month to help stabilize prices. He has requested the government to consider allowing wheat imports "at the earliest to ensure food security and market stability."

Last year, Pakistan was the world's 8th largest wheat producer, with a production of 31.4 million tons, according to the USDA. This year, however, the estimated production stands at 28.9 million tons, a decrease of 8% from last year's figure.

Arif Habib Commodities Chief Executive Officer Ahsan Mehanti has backed Jawad's assessment, predicting that the deepening wheat shortfall may increase Pakistan's import bill significantly this year, potentially resulting in a production loss of at least $3 billion.

The PBF is a part of the International Business Forum (IBF), a platform comprising 42 business associations from nearly 25 countries. The organisation's support and advocacy are crucial in navigating these challenging times.

Chappal has warned that if timely corrective steps are not taken, there could be supply gaps or even a shortage situation toward the end of the season. It is a call to action for the government and the business community to work together to ensure food security and market stability for the people of Pakistan.

Wheat shortage threatens Pakistan as Punjab floods devastate about one third of the nation's supply