Week 1 College Football Key Moments Predicted by Betting Shifts, Strength Rankings, and Patterns
News Article: College Football Week 1 Trends and Predictions
As the college football season kicks off, fans and bettors alike are eagerly anticipating the action. Here's a roundup of some key trends and predictions for Week 1, compiled from various betting and prediction platforms.
LSU and Notre Dame Shine on the Road
LSU and Notre Dame have been consistent performers in road and neutral games. LSU boasts an impressive 62.1% against the spread (ATS) record since 2019, while Notre Dame has a stellar 76.9% ATS record in the same period.
Florida Struggles in Non-Conference Games
On the flip side, Florida has struggled in non-conference games, posting a 33.3% ATS record over the last six seasons.
Stability Advantage for Georgia Southern, Tennessee, and Others
In the Week 1 matchups, Georgia Southern, Tennessee, and several other teams hold a Stability Advantage over their opponents. This advantage, calculated by an unnamed association, is based on various factors such as consistency, performance, and momentum.
Trend Matches and System Matches
Several trend matches and system matches have been identified for Week 1. For instance, Tennessee is a trend match as a 14-point favourite against Syracuse, and the Over is the system match for California-Oregon State with a total of 49.5.
Underdogs Performing Well
Underdogs such as Sam Houston State, Eastern Michigan, and Georgia State have been performing well in recent years, particularly in road and neutral games.
Purdue, Fresno State, and Others Struggling at Home and Away
On the other hand, teams like Purdue, Fresno State, and Northern Illinois have struggled ATS in their home games, with win rates as low as 20%.
Teams Coming Off an FBS Loss Fare Poorly
Teams coming off an FBS loss in game 1 and favoured big (>=24 points) over an FCS team in game 2 have a dismal 38.1% ATS record since 2012.
Huge Favourites Dominate
On the contrary, huge favourites (37.5 points or more) in FBS vs. FBS matchups have been incredibly successful, going 93.8% SU and 93.8% ATS since 2013.
System Matches Favouring the Over
Several system matches favour the Over, including Boise State-South Florida, Wyoming-Akron, UNLV-Sam Houston State, Temple-UMass, and GA Southern-Fresno St.
New Mexico, Maryland, and San Diego State Over the Total
New Mexico, Maryland, and San Diego State have been consistently going Over the total in their games, with win rates of 75%, 70.8%, and 62.9% respectively since 2019.
Michigan State, Temple, and UTEP Struggling Away from Home
Conversely, teams like Michigan State, Temple, and UTEP have struggled ATS in road games, with win rates as low as 22.7%.
Kansas State, UCLA, and Others Struggling as Favourites
Kansas State, UCLA, and several other teams have struggled as favourites in recent years, with win rates as low as 24%.
Biggest Total Projections Favouring the Under
Several games are projected to have totals favouring the Under, including South Carolina, Louisiana Tech, Pittsburgh, and UNLV.
System Matches Favouring the Over
Several system matches favour the Over, including Penn State against Nevada and Georgia against Marshall.
Mississippi State, Virginia, and Others Hold Stability Advantage
In the Week 1 matchups, Mississippi State, Virginia, and several other teams hold a Stability Advantage over their opponents.
Underpriced Underdogs and Favourites
Virginia, Coastal Carolina, and several other teams are considered underpriced underdogs, while Cincinnati, TCU, and several other teams are considered underpriced favourites according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections.
Explosive Non-conference Games Between Group of 5 Opponents
Non-conference games between Group of 5 opponents involving home underdogs in Weeks 0/1 have been explosive, particularly when not expected to be. Since 2013, when totals on these games involving home dogs (or pick 'ems) are 64 or less, the result has been 23 Overs, 9 Unders (71.9%).
Conclusion
These trends and predictions offer valuable insights for bettors and fans alike as they gear up for the exciting start of the college football season. As always, it's essential to do thorough research and consider all factors before placing any bets. Happy betting!
