Fertiliser prices surge 44% as Middle East conflict disrupts supply

War in the Middle East sends global fertiliser prices soaring by 44%

Russia is benefiting from a sharp rise in fertiliser prices driven by the US-Israel war against Iran, as other major suppliers in the Middle East halt production and struggle to ship exports via the Strait of Hormuz.

The shift has put European supplies at risk, giving fresh impetus to Russia-friendly EU countries to argue that the bloc should ease restrictions on Russian fertiliser imposed in response to the war in Ukraine.

"Russia is one of the main beneficiaries [of the war] as a large commodities producer, but that's how it is - that's not just oil and gas, but fertiliser as well," said Andrey Sizov, managing director of grain consultancy SovEcon. "As you go down the chain of agricultural products, the price of those is going up as well, and Russia has pretty large reserves."

Russia's dominance of the global fertiliser market exceeds even its position in oil and gas markets, accounting for 23 per cent of ammonia exports, 14 per cent of urea and, together with ally Belarus, 40 per cent of potash. Its shipments remain unaffected by Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Middle East urea prices, the global benchmark, have soared 44 per cent since the beginning of the war to more than $670 a tonne.

Moscow is already receiving up to $150mn extra budget revenue from oil sales a day, amid the surge in prices caused by the war.

The Kremlin has portrayed the crisis in commodities markets as a way to bring Russia back in from the cold after four years of sanctions on its exports over President Vladimir Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Russia temporarily halted exports of ammonium nitrate on Tuesday to prioritise domestic producers, underlining Moscow's ability to affect reeling markets.

"Russia is well positioned for the predicted and emerging Era of Extreme Scarcity," Kirill Dmitriev, Putin's special envoy for economic co-operation, wrote on X in response.

Dmitriev predicted that, as "global supply chains break, both Russia's partners and adversaries will appreciate even more its critical role" as an exporter.

The impact is already being felt in Europe, where Belarusian potash remains banned and tariffs and duties apply to nitrogen fertilisers from Russia and Belarus.

Russian fertiliser exports to the EU were worth about €2bn last year, although volumes have fallen since new levies introduced in 2025 began to take effect.

Hungary's government, a long-standing advocate of lifting EU sanctions on Russia, has asked Brussels to ease fertiliser restrictions. In a letter to the European Commission on Monday, Hungarian agriculture minister István Nagy warned that limited access to cheaper imports could lead to lower yields and higher food prices, particularly in countries reliant on imported phosphorus and potash.

Washington said last week it would ease sanctions on several Belarusian producers including state company Belaruskali, potentially allowing exports to increase.

But there was little indication the EU would be willing to loosen its restrictions, according to Chris Lawson, head of fertilisers at consultancy CRU.

He said that Russia could not fully replace disrupted volumes from the Middle East, even if output rises this year. Russia is expected to export about 9.5mn tonnes of urea in 2026, or around 15-16 per cent of global trade. By contrast, Gulf producers account for closer to a third of traded global supply.

Sizov cautioned that plants were already running at about 90 per cent of capacity. Ammonium nitrate production facilities also make explosives for the Russian military and face Ukrainian drone strikes.

But Moscow is well positioned to use its exports as a tool to push back against western sanctions and convince emerging markets to back its cause.

The impact of the war on global agriculture markets could swing further in Russia's favour in the medium term, as import-dependent nations were forced to plant less and supply shocks sparked food price inflation, said Alexandra Prokopenko, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin.

"An official from an Asian or African country who needs urea before the monsoon does not discuss the Ukrainian question. He calls the Kremlin, and the Kremlin picks up," she said.

"Russia can convert market power into political rent - extracting geopolitical returns by positioning itself as an irreplaceable supplier."