U.S. Tariffs and ASEAN Food Security: Transforming Short-Term Hardships into Long-Term Advantages

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) finds itself in a delicate position, with the region heavily reliant on imports to meet demand for essential commodities like soya beans, corn, and wheat. This dependence, however, presents an opportunity for ASEAN countries to step up as alternative suppliers, particularly Thailand, Vietnam, and the Philippines, if US tariffs reduce American supply.

Vietnam, in particular, boasts a robust agricultural export base despite its shift towards industrialization and deep integration into global trade. Other ASEAN nations, such as Indonesia (palm oil), Thailand (rice and tropical fruits), the Philippines (coconut products), and Malaysia (palm oil and tropical fruits), also hold significant export volumes to the US.

However, it's essential to note that none of the ASEAN countries are currently leading large exports of soybeans, corn, or wheat to the USA at a significant scale compared to traditional suppliers like the US, Brazil, or Argentina.

The tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump on 2 April range from 10% to 49% on ASEAN Member States (AMS). These tariffs, along with the "tit-for-tat" response from non-Asean countries, have the potential to severely disrupt food trade, domestic production in exporting AMS, and the livelihood of millions of smallholder farmers across Southeast Asia.

To mitigate these impacts, ASEAN should focus on reducing import dependency, particularly for soya beans, corn, and wheat. Engaging dialogue partners such as South Korea, Japan, and Australia could enhance AMS Research and Development (R&D) capacity for breeding new, locally adapted, high-yielding crop varieties.

Moreover, ASEAN should concentrate on its strengths in producing seafood, vegetables, tropical fruits, vegetable oil, and rice. A regional agreement should be reached to compensate for insufficient production in certain AMS and avoid the misleading notion that individual AMS can achieve full self-sufficiency.

In the long term, ASEAN could potentially become a price-setter, benefiting consumers with lower prices. However, any reduction in exports caused by the tariffs results in reduced revenue and diminished production needs for AMS. To counteract this, ASEAN member states must reduce or eliminate protectionist measures that hinder trade between them where Asean, as a bloc, has a surplus.

Food-importing countries like Singapore and Brunei may invest in other Southeast Asian nations as future food sources, further reducing ASEAN's reliance on external suppliers. Redirecting exports and imports could increase the share of other leading non-US markets, providing a more stable and diverse trading environment for ASEAN.

The 90-day delay announced on 9 April in implementing the reciprocal tariffs offers a temporary reprieve but has not alleviated the uncertainty surrounding trade with the US. Over 100 million smallholder farmers in Southeast Asia and thousands more employed in the agrifood value chain could be affected by any decrease in production.

In conclusion, the US tariffs pose significant challenges to ASEAN's agricultural sector. However, by focusing on self-sufficiency, diversifying trade, and collaborating with dialogue partners, ASEAN can navigate these challenges and potentially emerge stronger in the long run.

U.S. Tariffs and ASEAN Food Security: Transforming Short-Term Hardships into Long-Term Advantages