Trust dispute:

France is on the brink of a political crisis, as Prime Minister François Bayrou faces a vote of confidence in the National Assembly on Monday. The stakes are high, not just for France, but for the entire European Union, as the country's economic struggles could have far-reaching implications.

The current state of France's public debt is a significant concern. With a debt-to-GDP ratio of around 114 percent, France ranks third among eurozone countries, trailing behind Greece and Italy. In absolute terms, France has the highest debt pile in the eurozone, at around 3.3 trillion euros. Additionally, France's budget deficit of 5.8 percent far exceeds the European limit of 3 percent.

Prime Minister Bayrou has presented a draft budget aiming for savings of 43.8 billion euros. However, the opposition, holding 330 votes compared to the government's 210, may pose a challenge. If Bayrou loses the vote of confidence, he is required to submit the resignation of his government to President Macron.

If no prime minister takes the reins for an extended period, it could lead to further loss of confidence in the markets. This instability could potentially affect France's European partners, as French economic issues could impact trade and limit President Macron's ability to deal with major crises like the Ukraine war.

President Macron, under pressure, may try to appoint a new prime minister as soon as possible. However, the search for a new prime minister may be complex due to the lack of majority in the National Assembly by Macron's centrist faction, leftist forces, or Marine Le Pen's right-wing nationalists.

The upcoming negotiations on the austerity budget are expected to be extremely difficult. If the government falls, a political crisis would deepen, with no clear leader to unite the various factions and prevent stagnation.

In a bid to avoid new elections, which would initially bring instability to France, President Macron has announced Emmanuel Macron as the candidate to succeed the resigned Prime Minister François Bayrou. However, the only hope for the government may be that many opposition members abstain from voting, but this scenario is considered unlikely.

Dissolving the lower house and calling for new elections is an option for Macron if he cannot find another solution. However, this move could further deepen the political crisis and delay the necessary steps to get France's debt under control and pass a budget for the next year.

In the midst of this domestic crisis, President Macron remains the key player and first point of contact in foreign policy. However, he may take a backseat due to the domestic turmoil, potentially impacting France's ability to navigate international issues effectively.

The vote of confidence on Monday will be a pivotal moment for France, testing the resolve of the government and the opposition, and setting the course for the country's economic future. It is a choice between "chaos and responsibility," as Prime Minister Bayrou has put it, a choice that will echo beyond France's borders.