Trump entertains Ukraine's security sector, operating within slim boundaries

In recent weeks, the international community has been closely watching the developments surrounding Ukraine, with various leaders proposing different strategies and voicing their opinions.

One of the key figures suggesting a comprehensive approach for Ukraine is Debra Cagan, a former senior US policymaker. Cagan believes that a successful strategy should encompass components on land, air, and sea, with a particular focus on keeping Black Sea ports open.

The proposed strategy, in some ways, resembles NATO's binding promise, often referred to as "Article Five-like protection." This promise states that an attack on one NATO member is considered an attack on all. However, it's important to note that Ukraine is not a NATO member, and the prospect of membership has been ruled out by current President Donald Trump.

Trump's stance on Ukraine has been a subject of debate within his own party. While he retains a strong hold on the Republican Party, figures like Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene have voiced dissent, criticizing more support for Ukraine. Greene argues that voters will be appalled by such a move, stating that America is currently broke.

Despite the internal discord, Trump has considered promises to Ukraine aimed at ending the Russian invasion. In conversations with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Trump has spoken of providing US airpower to enforce any agreement. However, the details of what US airpower would entail remain unclear.

European leaders, on the other hand, have shown unity and solidarity in their support of Zelensky. Ten European countries, including France and the United Kingdom, have discussed the possibility of deploying troops to Ukraine for peacekeeping. The idea is that such a presence could form part of future security guarantees after a ceasefire, with Germany potentially participating in a European military presence.

Kristine Berzina, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund, believes that European leaders are ready to move in support of Ukraine. For meaningful change to occur, she emphasizes the need for these leaders to be prepared to act and show Trump they have everything ready to implement an agreement.

Berzina also suggests that Trump could sell his base on the idea that this is about America keeping peace and not about America making war. This approach could potentially help mitigate the dissent within his hard-right base.

However, not everyone in Trump's inner circle shares this optimistic view. Debra Cagan predicts that people around Trump will attempt to minimize security guarantees for Ukraine.

Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, has stated that Putin had agreed to a "concession" of the United States offering "Article Five-like protection" for Ukraine. Yet, the specifics of this agreement remain uncertain, and no immediate troop sending has been decided.

Lastly, Trump has tried to portray the war as belonging to his political rival, Joe Biden, and has spoken openly of his desire for the Nobel Peace Prize. However, the future of Ukraine's security remains uncertain, with ongoing discussions and debates shaping the course of action.