The root causes of France's ongoing political upheaval

In a tense political climate, France is bracing for a crucial confidence vote on the fiscal strategy proposed by Prime Minister Bayrou, scheduled for August 25. The vote comes as France's public debt has climbed to 113.9 percent of the country's GDP, with last year's deficit nearly doubling the EU's 3 percent limit.

If the government loses the confidence vote, Prime Minister Bayrou will be required to submit his resignation to President Macron. The result of the vote will be known between 1730-1800 GMT on the day of the vote.

Should Bayrou lose the vote, he could stay on in a caretaker capacity, as was the case with the previous Barnier government. The savings in the proposed budget are primarily through cuts to public spending and scrapping two public holidays.

The opposition parties, including the far-right National Rally and hard-left France Unbowed, are pushing for snap parliamentary elections and for President Macron to resign. However, centrist and conservative parties that back the current government have agreed that a dissolution of parliament would not solve the crisis.

Striking a deal with the Socialists seems like one of the only viable options. Three political blocs are in parliament, none of which has an outright majority. Names circulating as possible choices for the next prime minister include Finance Minister Eric Lombard, former Socialist prime minister Bernard Cazeneuve, and Court of Auditors chief Pierre Moscovici.

President Macron has vowed to serve out his term despite the budget crisis. On Monday, there is no specific information about the National Council meeting at 15:00 or Bayrou holding a speech. The next known National Council related event is a Presidial Conference setting the agenda at 10:30 the following Thursday, September 18, 2025.

On September 18, trade unions hold strikes and protests. On September 10, the grassroots Bloquons Tout movement plans nationwide protests. Fitch has also reviewed France's credit rating, with a downgrade possible if the crisis deepens.

In a surprising move, President Macron called a snap parliamentary election in 2024, but the outcome of the confidence vote could potentially accelerate this timeline. The fate of the French government hangs in the balance as the nation awaits the outcome of the confidence vote.