The prospect of the fuel cell's prominence in the years to come?

In the world of sustainable transport, fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) have been a topic of interest, but their future remains uncertain.

Daimler Truck, a major player in the trucking industry, has put the series launch of its GenH2 fuel cell truck on hold as part of a cost-cutting program. Large-scale industrialization is not expected until the 2029 or early 2030s. This decision comes amidst a broader trend, as IDTechEx predicts that only 500,000 FCEVs will be sold worldwide per year by 2045.

The reasons for this slow progress are multifold. The production and operation of FCEVs are significantly more expensive than for battery electric vehicles (BEVs). Moreover, the slow growth of the refueling infrastructure, uncertain subsidy conditions, and still unprofitable business model are further challenges.

Despite these setbacks, IDTechEx analysts believe that the technology might find a second chance if the planned hydrogen infrastructure in Europe, the USA, and Asia becomes a reality. This optimism is shared by companies like Toyota, which continues to hold on to fuel cell passenger cars despite disappointing sales figures. Toyota uses fuel cell technology for its own factory traffic and has a new model generation announced for next year.

Toyota has some fuel cell vans in use in Fukuoka, primarily for delivery services and emergency vehicles, but the volume is not significant. Hyundai, another key player, continues to offer the Nexo and has presented the concept vehicle "Initium" for a 2026 market release. Hyundai has already delivered over 3,000 hydrogen trucks.

However, not all companies are as optimistic. Renault's joint venture Hyvia's dissolution raises questions about the future of the hydrogen-powered van project. Stellantis confirmed the halt of its fuel cell vehicle development program and series production of hydrogen-powered vans in July.

In Germany, private car owners can currently only refuel hydrogen at 46 stations with 700 bar pressure, and for commercial vehicles, there are only 35 locations with refueling points that pump hydrogen into the tank at 350 bar pressure.

Despite these setbacks, the determination for hydrogen vehicles in Europe, America, and Asia regarding the heavy transport sector persists. This is due to strong ongoing investments in clean energy technologies, expanding hydrogen infrastructure, and government-driven decarbonization initiatives focused on sustainability and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Europe rapidly expands liquid hydrogen infrastructure with major investments, Asia-Pacific leads in hydrogen adoption and infrastructure development, and strategic climate targets and economic incentives sustain market growth despite challenges.

Honda is represented in the market with the CR-V Fuel Cell, but almost exclusively in Japan, Korea, and the USA, and announced a new fuel cell generation at the beginning of the year. Honda is also developing a "Giga-Fuel Cell" truck with Isuzu for 2027.

As we move forward, the future of FCEVs remains a topic of debate. While they face challenges, the potential benefits, particularly in heavy-duty applications like long-haul trucks, buses, and fleet vehicles with fixed routes, cannot be ignored. The development of hydrogen infrastructure and government support will be crucial in determining the future of FCEVs.

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