The escalating trend of the 'False Number 3' in Test cricket, and its underlying causes
In the world of Test cricket, a noticeable shift in batting averages has been observed, particularly among the top six positions, when compared to the period between the start of 2000 and the end of 2017. This change is most pronounced at the one-down batting position.
This transformation has led to the emergence of a new role for the No.3 batter, often referred to as the "day-watch" batter. Unlike the traditional tail-ender role, the "day-watch" batter's mission is to keep the No.4 (often the best batter of the side) and others away from the new ball as long as possible.
The opening stand duration has decreased from 70 balls between 2000 and 2017 to 61 balls in the latter phase, which means the No.3 batter is facing a newer ball more frequently. This trend is significant, as it highlights the importance of the "day-watch" batter's role.
Malcolm Marshall bowled every 47 balls in Test cricket, and Kemar Roach every 53, emphasizing the impact of the reduced opening stand duration on bowlers.
Several teams have adopted aggressive No.5 batters in recent years, such as Harry Brook, Travis Head, Rishabh Pant, and Kamindu Mendis. These players have shown exceptional strike rates since 2024, suggesting a potential change in the traditional roles of batters at positions three and four.
The No.3 role has been impacted significantly, with players like Joe Root, Steve Smith, and Ollie Pope relinquishing the spot. Kane Williamson is an exception, maintaining his prowess at No.3.
In the 2023 Ashes, England used Moeen Ali as a "day-watch" batter, soaking up the new ball before the main batters came out. Similarly, Cameron Green, the Australian No.3 in the World Test Championship final, had never batted at one-drop before and averaged 36 with the bat coming into the final.
The best entries for bowlers have been from the eight years between 2018 and 2025, with fast bowlers averaging 25.39 in 2018, the best since 1956. This trend continued in 2019, with fast bowlers averaging 26.36.
The origins of this trend and the decline in the average performance of No.3 Test cricket players in recent years are yet to be fully analysed and explained. However, it is clear that the role of the No.3 batter is evolving, and the new generation of one-down batters may push teams to use their best batters at positions four and five.
The term "false three" has been used to describe the new role of a "day-watch" batter at No.3, as it is not a typical tail-ender role. Wiaan Mulder, the South African No.3 counterpart in the same final, had previously batted at three only twice, for scores of 15 and 5.
Both Cameron Green and Wiaan Mulder are seam-bowling all-rounders, adding another layer of complexity to their roles in the team. As the game continues to evolve, it will be interesting to see how these trends develop and how the roles of batters continue to adapt.
