Super Bowl LVII Predictions: Individual Running Yards for Athletes
Leading up to Super Bowl LVII, the focus shifts towards individual player prop bets, particularly those involving rushing yards. Running back Miles Sanders and quarterback Jalen Hurts from the Philadelphia Eagles stand out with the highest rushing yard totals on the Super Bowl prop bets board. However, backup running back Kenneth Gainwell has been the team's leading rusher in the playoffs.
The upcoming Super Bowl between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles showcases contrasting offensive styles. While the Eagles favor a run-heavy approach, the Chiefs rely more on passing. As a result, players from the Eagles have higher potential rushing totals compared to those on the Chiefs.
Super Bowl LVII Player Rushing Prop Bets:
- Miles Sanders (RB, Eagles): 60.5 yards o/u
- Jalen Hurts (QB, Eagles): 49.5 yards o/u
- Isiah Pacheco (RB, Chiefs): 49.5 yards o/u
- Jerick McKinnon (RB, Chiefs): 22.5 yards o/u
- Kenneth Gainwell (RB, Eagles): 19.5 yards o/u
- Patrick Mahomes (QB, Chiefs): 19.5 yards o/u
As of Monday morning, six days before Super Bowl LVII on February 12, the Eagles are considered the -1.5 favorites against the Chiefs. The points total is set at 50.5 o/u. The Super Bowl initially opened as a pick'em, but betting lines eventually settled left-leaning towards the Eagles last week. It's likely that the point spread and prop betting numbers will change following additional wagers.
Differing Rushing Styles Between Teams
During the regular season, the Eagles demonstrated their strength in running the ball, leading the league with an average of 208 rushing yards per game. This is more than double the Chiefs' average of 98 rushing yards per game.
The Chiefs' offensive strategy mainly revolves around passing the ball. During the regular season, the Chiefs averaged 115.9 yards per game in rushing, ranking 20th overall. They boasted an eighth-best run defense, allowing just 107.2 yards per game. On the other hand, the Eagles' run defense ranked 17th overall, giving up an average of 121.6 rushing yards per game. However, in two postseason victories, the Eagles significantly improved their run defense, allowing an average of 99.5 rushing yards per game. Conversely, the Chiefs allowed more rushing yards per game in their close playoff wins, at 107.5.
Miles Sanders (60.5 O/U):
In 17 games this season, Sanders placed fifth in the league for rushing yards (1,269) and eighth in attempts (259). He also scored 11 rushing touchdowns, good for eighth place in the league. He averaged 74.6 yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry, but was a minimal factor in the passing game with only 20 receptions and zero receiving touchdowns.
And in the playoffs, he saw a decrease in usage to just 58% due to the rise of Kenneth Gainwell. In two playoff victories, Sanders rushed 28 times for 132 yards and two touchdowns. He averaged 66 rushing yards per playoff game and 4.7 yards per carry. In both games, Sanders had a significant presence, rushing 17 times for 90 yards against the New York Giants and carrying the ball only 11 times for 42 yards against the San Francisco 49ers, while adding two rushing touchdowns.
Jalen Hurts (49.5 O/U):
Through 15 games this season, Hurts placed fourth among quarterbacks with 760 rushing yards. He carried the ball 165 times at an average of 4.6 yards per carry and led all quarterbacks with 13 rushing touchdowns per game, ranking third overall in terms of rushing yards per game (50.7).
In the playoffs, Hurts wasn't as dominant on the ground, only rushing 20 times for 73 yards and two rushing touchdowns. His average dropped to 36.5 yards per game and 3.7 yards per carry. The Chiefs' top-eight run defense presents an interesting matchup: will they be able to contain Hurts? The betting consensus believes Hurts can excel on the ground in the Super Bowl with 49.5 rushing yards o/u.
Hurts is among the top contenders to earn MVP of Super Bowl LVII. He's also a possible choice to score multiple touchdowns at +600 odds.
Isiah Pacheco (49.5 O/U):
In contrast to Kenneth Gainwell, who has a bigger role in the passing game, Isiah Pacheco receives more rushing attempts. However, McKinnon is a greater asset in the passing game.
Unlike the Eagles' emphasis on running the ball, the Chiefs utilize their running backs as additional blockers to prevent blitzes and as a safety valve for Mahomes in the passing game. This contributes to his lower potential rushing yards in the Super Bowl.
Prop bets analyse individual player outcomes, so Sanders and Hurts, as Philadelphia's primary runners, have greater rushing yard totals than Chiefs' options Pacheco and McKinnon.
Pacheco is the highest-rated Chiefs player with a rushing prop bet of 49.5 yards over/under. The Chiefs' main running back during the second half of the season, Pacheco carried the ball a total of 170 times and gained 830 yards for an average of 4.9 yards per carry. He scored five rushing touchdowns.
In the postseason, Pacheco played a significant role, carrying the ball 22 times for a total of 121 yards, which averages out to 5.5 yards per carry. However, he only managed to score one touchdown. Pacheco is tied for the third-highest number of receptions on the Chiefs with six catches in the playoffs. In addition, he gathered 65 receiving yards but didn't score any touchdowns.
Pacheco averaged 93 yards from scrimmage (combined rushing and receiving yards) in the playoffs. DraftKings posted a prop bet on this statistic, but the over/under for Pacheco is only 69.5 yards.
Jerick McKinnon (22.5 O/U)
McKinnon had a rather quiet postseason, only scoring 26 rushing yards. As a result, his Super Bowl rushing total leans towards the higher end at 22.5 yards over/under.
During the regular season, McKinnon didn't have any standout rushing games, with only three of the 17 times he carried the ball resulting in over 25 rushing yards. All told, he rushed 72 times for 291 yards, an average of 4.0 yards per carry, and scored one rushing touchdown.
McKinnon was more effective in the red zone, tallying nine touchdown receptions during the season. He also had 56 receptions for 512 yards.
Kenneth Gainwell (19.5 O/U)
The second-year running back is emerging as a significant contributor during the playoffs. Gainwell was chosen by the Eagles in the fifth round of the 2021 NFL Draft. As the Eagles' designated third-down running back during the regular season, he was valued for his exceptional blocking skills.
Gainwell has made an impact during the playoffs. He currently leads the Eagles in rushing yards with 160 yards in two games, averaging an impressive 6.2 yards per carry. His most notable performance took place in the NFC divisional round, where he rushed for 112 yards and a touchdown on just 12 carries.
During the regular season, Gainwell rushed a total of 53 times for 240 yards. This amounts to 4.5 yards per carry and 14.1 yards per game on average. The Eagles wanted to protect its star players, Sanders, and Hurts going into the Super Bowl, which explains the lower-than-average rushing numbers in the regular season. However, Gainwell showed promise by rushing for over 20 yards in a game twice, which is more than he managed during the regular season.
Based on these facts, his rushing prop bet for the Super Bowl was initially 18.5 yards over/under, but bookmakers increased it to 19.5 yards due to the rising interest and support for Gainwell and the over in those bets.
Patrick Mahomes (19.5 O/U)
Mahomes, the Chiefs' quarterback, is dealing with a high ankle sprain, an injury he sustained in the AFC divisional round in January. Consequently, he has had ample time to recovery before the Super Bowl. Mahomes is well-known for his powerful arm and expert ability to avoid defenders in the pocket, making him a capable runner.
The 19.5-yard rushing prop bet for Mahomes may seem high, as he only rushed for 16 yards in the two postseason victories. However, he produced an average of 22.6 rushing yards per game in the regular season, totaling 358 rushing yards at a 5.9-yard per game average, and scored one rushing touchdown in those games. In 80 regular season games throughout his career, his average for rushing yards per carry is 5.2. During the 2022 season, he had 10 games in which he rushed for 21 or more yards.
