Southeast NBA Division Lands Three Squads as Title Frontrunners
In the closing weeks of the NBA regular season, the Southeast Division is still undecided. The Miami Heat, placed as favorites to win the division at -500 odds, are currently leading the Atlanta Hawks (+350) and the Washington Wizards (+2000) according to DraftKings. If the season ended today, all three teams would be participating in the Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament to determine the #7 and #8 seeds for the playoffs.
The Southeast Division is the weakest division this season, yet the actual odds don't convey the close competition between the teams. The Heat (35-32) are leading the Hawks (33-33) by 1.5 games and the Wizards (31-35) by 3.5 games. Both the Hawks and Wizards have 16 games left on their schedule, while the Heat have only 15 games remaining.
As things stand, the Heat are in seventh place in the Eastern Conference and trail the sixth-place Brooklyn Nets by three games, likely ensuring their participation in the Play-In Tournament. The Hawks occupy eighth place, while the Wizards are in tenth place.
FiveThirtyEight predicts the Heat will win the division, finishing the regular season with 43 wins, the Hawks with 42 wins, and the Wizards with only 39 wins.
Not Exactly a Lock: Heat -500
The Heat are the reigning Southeast Division champions, having claimed the divisional title eight times in the last 12 seasons.
Last season's success with the #1 seed placed the Heat at the top, as predicted by the preseason narrative. The Heat were installed as the betting favorite to win the Southeast Division at -165 odds, while the Hawks were their closest competition at +170 odds. The Wizards, Charlotte Hornets, and Orlando Magic were labeled as long shots.
The Heat struggled to find their footing at the beginning of the season, starting with a 2-5 record. They didn't achieve a winning record until December 17, their record standing at 16-15 for the first time this season.
The Heat found their rhythm in January. They climbed up to fourth place in the conference standings before hitting a slump prior to the All-Star break and embarking on a four-game losing streak. Over their last ten games, the Heat have managed only 3 wins, slipping to seventh place.
The front office chose not to make any major moves at the trade deadline, despite rumors suggesting the Heat were pursuing Bradley Beal from the Wizards. The Heat acquired power forward Kevin Love after the deadline in the buyout market. Love joined the starting lineup but hasn't made much of an impact, averaging just 7.6 points per game.
With 15 games remaining, the Heat have a slightly easier schedule than the Hawks and Wizards, which contributes to them being -500 odds to win the Southeast Division.
The Heat's opponents have a combined winning percentage of .484. They play four games against the worst teams in the conference, with two games each against the Detroit Pistons and Orlando Magic.
Value Town: Hawks +350
Atlanta is never dull with the Hawks. The franchise changed coaches mid-season for the second time in the last three years. After Nate McMillian took over in the middle of the 2020-21 season, the Hawks won the Southeast title and made a deep playoff run thanks to some standout performances from guard Trae Young. McMillian led the Hawks to the 2021 Eastern Conference finals, but that was the height of his tenure.
McMillian and Young had a public falling out this season, and the front office chose to side with Young. The Hawks didn't wait until the end of the season to fire McMillian and brought in Quin Snyder for the remainder of the season. The Hawks are hoping history will repeat itself, and a new coach will inspire the team and lead to another deep postseason run.
The Hawks clinched the #8 seed last year through the Play-In Tournament but exited in the first round of the playoffs. The top-ranked Heat eliminated the Hawks in five games.
This year, the Hawks and Heat are on track to meet in the Play-In Tournament to determine the #7 seed. The Heat bested the Hawks in the regular-season series 3-1, and they won't face each other in the final month of the season.
The Hawks have 15 games left and the toughest schedule out of their divisional rivals. Their opponents have a combined winning percentage of .510, and the Hawks will play the Boston Celtics (twice), Philadelphia 76ers, Cleveland Cavaliers, Brooklyn Nets, and the surging Golden State Warriors. Despite a tough schedule, the Hawks offer value at +450 odds to win the division because they're only 1.5 games behind the Heat and have an additional game to catch them.
Long Shot: Wizards +2000
The Wizards find themselves on the bubble's right side but remain in a precarious position. They're only half a game behind the Toronto Raptors (32-35) in ninth place. However, the Chicago Bulls (30-36) and Indiana Pacers (29-37) are still vying for a spot in the Play-In Tournament. The Wizards have a one-game lead over the Bulls and a two-game lead over the Pacers.
The Wizards narrowly lost a close game against the Hawks in Atlanta on Wednesday night by only two points. That match had playoff vibes, and the two teams will face each other twice more this season. The Hawks host the Wizards again on Friday in another must-win game for Washington.
In the remaining 16 matches, the Wizards face tough opponents with an average winning rate of about 50.6%. Among these challenges, they'll square off against the NBA's struggling teams such as the San Antonio Spurs, Detroit Pistons, and Houston Rockets.
Their schedule isn't all tough rows to hoe, though. They have three games against the lesser competitors towards the end of the season, which might just determine the Southeast Division championship and their place in the Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament.
As per FiveThirtyEight's predictions, the Wizards have approximately a one-in-three chance of making it to the playoffs.
