Rising chaos in Paris: evaluating the impacts of the collapse of the administration

In a surprising turn of events, France's center-right government, led by Prime Minister François Bayrou, has fallen after barely nine months in office. The downfall was triggered by Bayrou's unintentional vote of no confidence in the National Assembly, leading to his government's resignation.

The political instability in France is expected to have implications for its relations with other European countries, particularly Germany, which is now considered Ukraine's most important partner. Chancellor Friedrich Merz is taking on more responsibility in Europe as the US continues to withdraw support for Ukraine.

The fall of the government is a heavy defeat for President Emmanuel Macron, who must now find a new prime minister. This task will not be easy, given the lack of majority in the lower house among Macron's center block, the left wing, and Le Pen's right-wing nationalists. The political paralysis resulting from a government change could delay budget plans, potentially pushing foreign policy, including Ukraine aid, to the background.

The draft austerity budget presented by Bayrou aimed to curb France's galloping public debt, currently at around 114 percent of GDP, the highest in the eurozone after Greece and Italy. The repayment of debts could become the largest budget item, even before spending on education or defense, as warned by the prime minister. The efforts to cut back on public spending could be delayed and weakened due to the fall of the government, potentially having negative effects on the interest burden of new government bonds and the French economy.

The European Commission, which had initiated a disciplinary procedure last year due to excessive new debt in France, is closely watching the situation. The domestic political crisis in France is less of a concern in Brussels than the fiscal situation, as the European Commission fears a renewed loss of trust in the Eurozone, despite its increased resilience compared to the height of the Greek financial crisis.

Macron, as president, must take some blame for the complex political mix in parliament, which goes back to the parliamentary elections he initiated in 2024. The upcoming change of government in France is not expected to immediately impact relations with Berlin, as both countries aim to strengthen their ties.

In a positive note, France supports Ukraine with military aid, financially, and through training programs for soldiers, committing around 7.6 billion euros from 2022 to June 2025, about 0.3 percent of its GDP. However, the political instability in France may cause delays or complications in financing aid to Ukraine, as the government will remain only in caretaker mode until a new prime minister is appointed, limiting new legislative initiatives including those on budget and Ukraine support.

Pressure on Macron is likely to increase, both on the streets and in parliament. Marine Le Pen's right-wing nationalists and France's left wing are likely to use the fall to stir up sentiment against Macron. It is expected that the head of state will allow the cabinet to continue in an acting capacity until a successor is found.

In conclusion, the fall of the French government has caused a significant political shakeup, with potential implications for France's relations with other European countries, particularly Germany, and for its ability to provide aid to Ukraine. The upcoming months will be critical as France navigates this period of political instability.

Rising chaos in Paris: evaluating the impacts of the collapse of the administration