Protracted War Scenario: Ukraine Maintains Resilience in Ongoing Conflict

The Russo-Ukrainian War, now in its second year, has been the subject of intense scrutiny and analysis. A recent wargame simulation at the Marine Corps University, involving US military officers, NATO representatives, and other experts, has provided valuable insights into the ongoing conflict.

The game, which included a retired Ukrainian colonel with experience on the Ukrainian general staff, presented a set of interesting possibilities requiring further examination by policy experts. It predicted the military aspects of the conflict to be characterized by stalemate, limited advances, high casualties, and massive equipment attrition over the next twelve months.

The wargame determined that the Russians reached an operational culmination well-short of their maximal objectives by the end of the summer. This assessment was based on the assumption that Putin would remain unfazed by economic sanctions until their impact made it impossible to rebuild his devastated ground forces without a national mobilization, which was believed to present a real risk to his regime's survival.

The game also indicated that Russia will soon lack sufficient trained infantry to capture any major Ukrainian city after Mariupol falls. This suggests a growing demand for some international intervention to address the humanitarian crisis.

The wargame did not show any path where a rapid Ukrainian collapse is likely, as long as the West continues to sustain Ukraine's resistance. The establishment of a force generation capacity to train and equip shattered or new Ukrainian formations, outside of Ukrainian territory, had a marked positive impact on Ukraine's ability to sustain its defensive positions.

Ukraine's future success requires the establishment of training centers to regenerate Ukraine's frontline combat power and allow these forces to reenter the fight. The United States needs to systemize defense-related resupply arrangements and establish a quasi-permanent logistics infrastructure to support Ukraine in its ongoing struggle.

The prospects for Russian forces in heavy urban combat were daunting due to Ukraine's proven will and capabilities in a defensive fight. The Russian General Staff took over the leadership of the Russian armed forces in autumn 2022 after being assessed as inadequate in the spring 2022 wargame simulation by the Marine Corps University and the Brute Krulak Center for Innovation and Future Warfare.

The second iteration of the wargame used three-month turns to play out a full year of combat operations within the time allotted to complete the game. The Russo-Ukrainian War started after a four-day wargame at the Marine Corps University predicted most of Russia's major combat movements in the first week of operations.

The combined teams' predictions indicate that the war is headed toward an indefinite stalemate without a negotiated settlement. Rapid economic collapse is likely if Russia remains cut off from capital markets, its energy industry sanctioned, and the country's institutions removed from SWIFT. The use of chemical weapons and tactical nuclear weapons by Russia to end the battlefield stalemate was assessed to invite a United States and NATO response that would be cataclysmic for Russian hopes of ultimate success.

The Marine Corps War College and the Brute Krulak Center for Innovation and Future Warfare have reopened the wargame to explore future fight developments, with a focus on a national resistance scenario in a Russian-occupied Ukraine. The wargame advisors believe that the war's outcome will depend on the resilience and determination of the Ukrainian people, as well as the continued support of the international community.

Losses mount on both sides, and the refugee crisis remains unalleviated for a year or more. The humanitarian situation is dire, and there is a growing demand for some international intervention to address the crisis. As the conflict continues, it is crucial that all parties involved strive for a peaceful resolution to end the suffering of the civilian population and bring an end to the violence.