Predictions, odds, and picks for the Cook Out Southern 500 NASCAR race at Darlington, based on current racing trends and team performances.
Denny Hamlin will lead the field to green at Darlington Raceway tonight, having won the pole for the Cook Out Southern 500. Joining him on the front row is Chase Briscoe. However, Hamlin's teammate Denny Hamlin finds himself in a challenging position, starting in 21st, while Brad Keselowski will begin the race in 32nd.
Known as "Too Tough to Tame" due to its unique shape and abrasive pavement, Darlington Raceway poses a formidable challenge. The track's characteristics can lead to tire wear and lap-time falloff, making track position crucial. This could work to the advantage of Hamlin and his teammates Kyle Larson, who starts 5th, and William Byron, who starts 11th.
Chase Elliott, another Hendrick Motorsports driver, is more likely to stick with the standard playbook, offering a cleaner, more predictable finishing window. Elliott has outperformed Brad Keselowski in most speed metrics in a five-race dataset from Darlington and Homestead. However, an outlier in the 2024 Darlington spring race saw Keselowski claim victory despite Elliott's better performance in the dataset.
Pit strategy at Darlington Raceway often involves taking four tires and quick tire changes due to the abrasive pavement. Keselowski's tendency to gamble on high-wear tracks can lead to unpredictable results at Darlington.
On the playoff front, Josh Berry, Tyler Reddick, Austin Dillon, and Alex Bowman are in trouble, starting the postseason below the elimination cutline.
Our model predicts Elliott to finish the race in 16.2 position, while Keselowski is predicted to finish in 22.2 position.
Chris Buescher, Keselowski's RFK stablemate, starts 15th, making him the team's best hope. The race will be broadcast live on USA Network.
Denny Hamlin is the favourite for the race with an implied win probability of 18.18%, making it a close race to watch.
