Potential Matchup for 2028: JD Vance's Probability Against AOC, Pete Buttigieg, and Gavin Newsom in Elections

In the latest Emerson College poll, Vice President JD Vance holds a narrow lead over potential Democratic presidential candidates, according to a polling memo released on Friday. The survey, conducted from July 21 to July 22, 2025, surveyed 1,400 U.S. voters.

The poll found Vance with a single-digit lead over Pete Buttigieg, with 44% support for Vance and 43% for Buttigieg. Vance also has a slightly larger lead over Gavin Newsom, with 45% support for Vance and 42% for Newsom. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez received 41% support in the poll, slightly lower than Vance's 44%.

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted that about 13% of the electorate remains persuadable in the polling memo. Early polling can provide insights into how Americans view potential candidates ahead of the election, although surveys aren't always predictive this far in advance.

Pete Buttigieg fueled speculation that he could run for president earlier this year when he announced he would opt out of running statewide in Michigan. However, Ocasio-Cortez has not publicly signaled her intention to run for president, and Kamala Harris has not stated whether she will run again in the 2028 presidential race. Harris is reportedly considering a bid for California governor.

California Governor Gavin Newsom expressed in June that he is not currently thinking about running, but a presidential run could be a possible future path. Newsom traveled to early-voting primary state South Carolina this summer.

The poll conducted from July 21 to July 22, 2025, found that 47% of respondents disapproved of Trump's job performance, while 46% approved. Vice President JD Vance has not yet announced a candidacy for the 2028 presidential primaries.

Newsweek reached out to Vance's office and each of the candidates for comment via email, but did not receive a response at the time of publication. The margin of error for the poll is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

Political commentary suggests Democrats may prefer a more moderate candidate to appeal beyond their traditional base rather than Kamala Harris, who remains unpopular among both left and some centrist voters. Harris has not announced a candidacy for the 2028 presidential primaries and is currently seen as politically damaged and without realistic chances.

The Overton Insights poll from last month showed Harris with a slight lead over Vance, with 45% support for Harris and 42% for Vance. Ocasio-Cortez is also speculated to be a potential Senate candidate against incumbent New York Democrat Chuck Schumer.

Potential Matchup for 2028: JD Vance's Probability Against AOC, Pete Buttigieg, and Gavin Newsom in Elections