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Possible New York Indictment May Lengthen Donald Trump's 2024 Chances

Aiming for a return to the Oval Office, ex-President Donald Trump plans to vie for the presidency once more during the 2024 election in November.

Donald Trump speaks at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) on Saturday, March 4,...
Donald Trump speaks at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) on Saturday, March 4, 2023, at the Gaylord National Resort in Oxon Hill, Md. The former president is mounting another run at the US presidency.

Possible New York Indictment May Lengthen Donald Trump's 2024 Chances

Trump aims to reclaim the White House role in the November 2024 election, making him the prospective second US president to serve two non-consecutive terms, following President Grover Cleveland. Trump declared his presidential campaign for 2024 in November, despite a significant portion of the Republican Party expressing readiness for a new leader, with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis being the leading contender for the position. However, Trump continues to be the GOP's recognizable face.

Trump's chances of securing another four years in Washington have varied since his campaign announcement. Yet, news this week indicating that New York City prosecutors may bring a criminal indictment against Trump has prolonged his re-election prospects.

Trump's attorney, Joe Tacopina, disclosed to the Associated Press this week that Trump has been summoned to testify before a New York grand jury. Such summons often precede a formal criminal indictment.

If Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, a Democrat, does bring charges against Trump for the alleged hush money he provided to former adult film star Stormy Daniels in 2016 prior to the US election, it would mark a historical first for a former president.

The grand jury is investigating whether Trump's involvement in a $130,000 payment to Daniels to prevent her from disclosing her years-old sexual encounter with the former casino owner breached criminal laws. The specific charges under consideration remain unclear.

Trump's base Support

To rally his base, Trump seems to have encountered difficulties in generating excitement among other Republicans who might favor DeSantis or possibly former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley or Sen. Tim Scott (R-South Carolina) as the party's future leader.

Trump's campaign launch was underwhelming, resulting in an extension of the former president's 2024 odds in the days following the announcement.

The prospect of criminal charges against Trump has prompted some political bettors on PredictIt to abandon their recent Trump positions. On the PredictIt market determining who will win the GOP’s 2024 nomination for president, Trump's shares have dipped two cents to 39 cents. DeSantis has subsequently gained value, with his shares now at 42 cents.

Trump's Denial of Wrongdoing

Addressing the issue on his social media platform, Truth Social, Trump described the New York district attorney as engaging in politics.

"I did nothing wrong, I never had an affair with Stormy Daniels, nor would I have wanted to even if given the chance." Trump asserted. "This is a political witch hunt, aiming to take down the leading candidate in the Republican Party."

US sportsbooks are prohibited from accepting political bets. However, bookmakers in the UK have Trump at around +350 (7/2, implied odds of 22.2%) to win in 2024. A $100 bet on those odds and a Trump victory would result in a $350 payout.

President Joe Biden is the frontrunner in the 2024 betting market at +250 (5/2, implied odds of 28.5%). DeSantis lies slightly behind Trump at +360. VP Kamala Harris trails significantly at a distant +3100.

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