Political power dynamics in the 2025 Philippine midterm elections will undergo significant changes

The 2025 midterm elections in the Philippines brought about a transformation in the political landscape that was both subtle and significant.

On the surface, political dynasties remained influential, and old alliances continued to assert their dominance. However, a closer examination revealed a more nuanced story. In scattered provinces and contested cities, voters successfully pushed back against entrenched power, sparking shifts in coalitions and reemerging energies.

Despite the fluidity of political parties, candidates frequently changing affiliations and forming temporary alliances, name recognition and local machinery continued to play a crucial role in the outcomes. Moreover, family networks still held substantial sway, and personal loyalty often held more weight than ideological alignment, making it challenging to track the changes through traditional party lines.

Six maps have been produced to offer a more detailed perspective on the movements that might otherwise go unnoticed. Maps like these illustrate cracks in long-standing dynasties, the evolution of the Duterte coalition, the persistence of the "pink movement," and the advancement of progressive forces, among other insights.

Crucial gains where dynasties faltered

The 2025 midterm elections revealed a paradox: on one hand, there were significant signs of fissures in the decades-old grip of political dynasties. Several influential families, once considered unshakeable in their strongholds, experienced losses. However, these shifts were primarily isolated, leaving the broader electoral landscape still marked by the persistent dominance of these clan-based systems.

Highlighted provinces and districts signaled significant upsets. For example, the defeat of Cebu Governor Gwen Garcia marked the end of a long reign for one of the country's most powerful provincial dynasties. The Villar family's failure to retain their congressional seat in Las Piñas and the unseating of entrenched clans in Catanduanes, Albay, and parts of Mindanao were other notable examples. These military-sized victories signified that change is indeed a possibility, particularly in areas where credible challengers and widespread dissatisfaction converge. However, these instances haven't yet set the stage for widespread transformation.

Nationwide, political dynasties remained deeply embedded, holding approximately 71 out of 82 provincial governments[1]. Of these, 18 were classified as "obese" dynasties, each with five or more relatives contesting different races[2]. The fact that this trend is becoming accepted as the norm is concerning, as many families no longer attempt to conceal their control over power. In Congress, nearly 80% of lawmakers belonged to political clans, as did over half of all elected local officials. This concentration of political power has wide-reaching implications, impacting not just democratic accountability, but also the quality of public service, policy consistency, and economic equity.

In this context, the flipped seats shown on the maps should be viewed as both encouraging and precarious. They highlight the potential for democratic openings but also how rare and hard-fought these breakthroughs have been. Even amid much-publicized rivalries, such as the intense feud between the Marcos and Duterte camps, the outcome for many was a deepening of their grip on political power.

Where the Pink movement's momentum persisted

The 2025 midterm elections once again brought the Pink movement into focus, a network of volunteers, supporters, and concerned citizens that first coalesced around Vice President Leni Robredo's 2022 presidential bid. While she didn't win that race, the movement she ignited hasn't dissipated.

Instead, it has managed to endure with a level of resilience and increasing clarity that many observers didn't expect. As the campaign season began, Senators Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan leaned into the energy, hoping it would provide the necessary boost for their comebacks. It appears, in many areas where Robredo had polled strongly, they were successful in harnessing that momentum.

In Camarines Sur, a strategically significant province for the movement, Aquino and Pangilinan dominated the Senate race, propelled not only by local machinery but by a palpable emotional connection to Robredo's legacy[3]. Their final campaign rally in Naga City served both as a climactic event and a symbolic link to the enormous pink rallies of 2022. The atmosphere, visuals, and turnout rekindled the energy of previous momentum, proving that the Pink movement can still fill public spaces with enthusiasm and purpose.

Other traditional strongholds, such as Quezon, Iloilo, and Albay, also remained loyal to the tandem. These provinces had previously supported Robredo, and their continued loyalty suggests that the Pink base has evolved into a more durable political network capable of delivering coordinated results, especially in national races.

It's important to note the strategic impact of this support. The pink vote not only remains alive, but also demonstrates a level of decisiveness, concentration, and influence that extends beyond symbolic gestures. It remains to be seen whether this support will carry on through to 2028, but for now, the enduring nature of the Kakampink vote is no longer a theory, it's a political reality.

Duterte's slate strong in Mindanao but weakened elsewhere

Former President Rodrigo Duterte and Vice President Sara Duterte constructed a powerful electoral landscape in the 2025 midterm election with their "10+2" Senate slate[4]. The impact of their influence was clear in the strongholds, particularly throughout Mindanao, demonstrating the enduring power of regional networks, name recognition, and long-standing public programs like Bong Go's Malasakit Centers[4].

In the rest of the country, however, the situation was more nuanced. In Central Luzon and Metro Manila, and to an even greater extent in Bicol, Panay, and Negros, the slate's performance was weaker. These areas are bastions of organized opposition, and the victories indicate that although Duterte's brand is still potent in strategic places, it is not appealing everywhere.

The contrast reveals a widening regional divide, with what once was a broad national coalition increasingly becoming localized. However, the reelection and better rankings of Bong Go and Bato dela Rosa suggest a base that, although more concentrated, remains highly mobilized.

The composite popular vote of 34.1% confirmed that the Duterte coalition still commands the largest electoral bloc in the Senate[5]. This is significant but raises questions about its future sustainability, as only a handful of endorsed candidates consistently ranked among the top 12 across the country[5]. This could suggest that the success of the Duterte coalition will depend less on its national appeal and more on maintaining and expanding its local machinery. For opposition forces, this shifting dynamic may present opportunities to recapture lost ground. However, whether such gains can be consolidated into something more substantial remains to be seen.

Sara Duterte's position is notable. Despite facing impeachment proceedings[6], she appears to retain significant political support, potentially even gaining strength through the process. The loyalty to her slate reflects this. However, the narrowing geography of her support is undeniable. Sustaining national relevance in the long term may require broader coalition building, strategic messaging, and a shift in political positioning. Whether or not that happens remains uncertain.

Where progressives secured visibility

What initially started as ripples in 2022 with Sen. Risa Hontiveros's Senate run now appears to have coalesced into something more structured. Not massive, not dominating, but solid. In 2025, Bam Aquino, Kiko Pangilinan, and even Heidi Mendoza, all backed by Akbayan, managed to secure real territory, particularly in areas where progressive politics had previously struggled to gain traction.

It's significant to note that it's not just that they secured seats, it's how they did so. By focusing on important issues such as food security, education, and anti-corruption, they appealed to voters who had previously felt disconnected from the political process. The Lingayen-Lucena corridor, with every province along that belt delivering for at least one progressive candidate, suggests a pattern that is purposeful rather than coincidental.

There are also bright spots beyond Luzon, though they remain more scattered. Parts of the Visayas, Negros Occidental in particular, showed promising signs. Some areas near Davao did as well. While these trends may be too early to call definitive, they hint at the possibility of a broader reach. These aren't the traditional strongholds for progressives, so when even a few areas in those regions break the mold, you have to wonder if something is shifting. Or is it just candidate-specific appeal? Time will tell.

What is clearer is that this bloc of Aquino, Pangilinan plus Hontiveros now forms a viable, visible opposition in the Senate. Their impact could be crucial, especially given the escalating political tension surrounding the impeachment of Vice President Sara Duterte. Whether this progressive momentum continues through to 2028 is another matter entirely, but for now, it indicates a slow, steady progress towards more balanced representation.

Where women replaced male incumbents but gains remain uneven

The Gendered Power map presents a mixed picture of women's political participation in the 2025 elections. Although 31 women won gubernatorial or independent city mayoral races and 72 secured congressional seats, representing a modest but meaningful increase[1], the overall representation still pales in comparison to the female majority of registered voters.

Especially notable are the regions where women took over seats from male predecessors, suggesting a potential shift in voter attitudes and the emergence of new leadership. The challenge lies in ensuring these gains are not merely temporary, requiring sustained efforts to build leadership pipelines and address structural barriers.

At the same time, it's important to acknowledge that these progresses are uneven, with several provinces previously led by women having switched back to male leadership. It's unclear whether these losses resulted from poor performance, a lack of viable female successors, or both. The complexities of these situations highlight the need for targeted interventions rooted in a deeper understanding of the factors influencing electoral outcomes for women.

Akbayan's territory expansion

An analysis of the spaces where Akbayan improved its 2025 election performance versus 2022 reveals significant overlap with the election bailiwicks of Chel Diokno, who ran for Senate in 2022[7]. This correlation suggests that Diokno's influence among youth and first-time voters may have played a role in galvanizing support for Akbayan. Whether this trend signifies a broader shift in political alignment or a temporary surge of activism remains to be seen, but it's worth monitoring closely as we approach the 2028 elections.

In conclusion, while the 2025 midterm elections illustrate the enduring influence of political dynasties in the Philippines, there are signs of change and potential for reform. These shifts are subtle and fragmented, making it essential for advocates of political reform to build upon the gains made during the 2025 elections to ensure that the path to a more inclusive and equitable political landscape is not derailed by entrenched interests.

https://pcij.org/2022/09/political-dynasties-unabated/
https://louismarcos.ph/features/political-dynasties-and-their-impact-on-the-philippines-political-scene-updated/
https://www.rappler.com/nation/638086-2022-pink-campaign-leni-bongbong-marcos-social-media-politik-pinkted
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-09/philippine-elections-10-polls-to-watch-in-tight-senate-race/101396068
https://www.rappler.com/analysis/743750-gender-elections-power-map-2025
https://www.gMANEWS.TV/stories/view/918968
https://web.archive.org/web/20220513205240/https://发国新闻网.com/political-reforms/2022-05-13/246240160.html
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