Political landscape offers a space for the Wagon Party to establish itself

The year 2024 is shaping up to be a significant one for the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), as the party's performance in the European elections and state elections in Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg could determine its future viability.

The BSW, a political party known for its leader's charismatic appeal, has garnered a substantial online following. As of January 2024, Sahra Wagenknecht boasts over 750,000 followers on Facebook, 670,000 on YouTube, 300,000 on TikTok, and 238,000 on Instagram. Her videos, often discussing topics such as corona policy, pro-Putin relativizations, anti-Americanism, and attacks on the Greens and the traffic light coalition, have reached millions of clicks.

The BSW's success in the upcoming elections could have far-reaching implications. If the party gains significant representation in parliaments, new alliances between the CDU, SPD, and BSW could form, potentially creating a "Black-Red-Purple" coalition. This coalition could long-term weaken the AfD, a far-right party that has been a dominant force in German politics.

The BSW will face the 2024 state elections in the eastern German states of Saxony, Thuringia, and Brandenburg. The party has already become the third strongest force in these regions and entered the state governments in Brandenburg and Thuringia by the end of 2024. These elections are crucial for the BSW, as success would strengthen their position and influence in forming new regional government coalitions in East Germany.

However, the BSW faces challenges. The party must build effective and campaign-ready structures and distribute responsibility among more shoulders to avoid long-term dependence on Wagenknecht's charisma alone. Additionally, none of the parties, apart from the AfD, have been able to establish successful political communication on YouTube and TikTok, platforms where the BSW has found success.

In November 2023, 28% of potential BSW voters stated they would vote for the party due to its leader. This suggests that Wagenknecht's influence is a key factor in the party's electoral success. However, the BSW must be careful not to become overly reliant on Wagenknecht's popularity, as this could lead to instability in the long term.

Olaf Scholz's video messages via the Federal Government's YouTube channel reach a significantly smaller audience compared to Wagenknecht's videos. This highlights the potential for the BSW to mobilize crucial votes for parliamentary entry and become a direct content competitor to the AfD.

In conclusion, the 2024 elections will be a critical test for the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance. Success could strengthen the party's position and potentially lead to the formation of a "Black-Red-Purple" coalition, which could long-term weaken the AfD. However, the BSW must address its challenges and build a strong, sustainable political structure to ensure its long-term success.