Policies proposed by Prabowo generate optimism and apprehension among Indonesians

In the dynamic world of international politics, Indonesia, the largest country in Southeast Asia and a founding member of ASEAN, finds itself at a critical juncture. With its significant influence within the regional organisation, Indonesia has the potential to shape discussions on ongoing issues, particularly the contentious South China Sea.

The Prabowo administration is looking to diversify its trade partners as U.S. tariffs loom, a move that could potentially impact the country's close ties with China. However, this shift may not be straightforward, as Indonesia's reliance on China could hinder its ability to navigate the U.S.-China rivalry in the region, thereby affecting ASEAN.

Domestically, concerns about the growing presence of military personnel in civilian sectors have been raised. A study by Kompas Litbang found that 69.5 percent of respondents expressed worry about this development undoing the reforms of 1998. There are also concerns about a gradual reversal of democratic progress in Indonesia.

Economically, the government's efficiency plan, aimed at reducing public spending, has had mixed results. While it has succeeded in cutting healthcare spending by 18.5 percent and infrastructure investment by a steep 73 percent, it has also hindered private investment, leading to an economic growth rate of 4.87 percent in the first quarter of the year - the slowest since the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic.

In an effort to boost economic growth, President Prabowo launched Danantara, a sovereign wealth fund, to manage state assets. However, since Danantara operates directly under presidential control, national auditors are not allowed to provide oversight, leading to criticism about the lack of independent supervision and transparency.

The Indonesian currency has also taken a hit, falling to an all-time low of 16,868 Indonesian rupiah against the U.S. dollar in April, surpassing its depreciation during both the pandemic and the 1998 Asian financial crisis. The government's $28 billion meal program could raise concerns about the government's ability to balance the budget.

In terms of foreign policy, Indonesia became the first member of ASEAN to join the BRICS group in January. The BRICS group, which aims to challenge G7 dominance, is composed of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Indonesia's membership in the group could provide new opportunities for economic cooperation, but it also raises questions about the country's independence in foreign policy decisions.

Indonesia's economic relationship with China has been further strengthened through various agreements, including one between Danantara and China Investment Corporation. China also played a significant role in financing Indonesia's high-speed rail project. However, this close relationship with China could potentially impact Indonesia's ability to maintain its independent foreign policy.

It's worth noting that Indonesia is the world's third-largest democracy by population. The Asian Barometer Survey indicates that Indonesians often link democracy to effective governance and positive socioeconomic outcomes. Interestingly, only 7 percent of Indonesians value economic growth over democracy.

The democratic transition in Indonesia has set a regional example with peaceful power transfers. Despite the challenges, Indonesia continues to maintain its commitment to democracy and its independent foreign policy, expressing interest in joining the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

However, the path ahead is not without its complexities. Balancing economic growth with democratic values, navigating international tensions, and ensuring transparency in government operations will be key challenges for the Prabowo administration.

Policies proposed by Prabowo generate optimism and apprehension among Indonesians