Player Prop Predictions for Chiefs vs. Chargers: Consider Over 249.5 Passing Yards for Patrick Mahomes on Friday's Matchup
FootballGuys' Week 1 NFL Predictions: Chiefs vs. Chargers Showdown
In the highly anticipated Week 1 NFL contest, the Kansas City Chiefs square off against the Los Angeles Chargers in Brazil. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET at Neo Quimica Arena in São Paulo, and the featured matchup promises to be a thrilling clash between quarterbacks Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes.
According to the model at FootballGuys, a renowned website known for its detailed and lasting computer predictions for NFL player prop bets, Mahomes is projected to pass over 249.5 yards in the game, with a total of 283 yards. This prediction aligns with Mahomes' recent history against the Chargers, as he has exceeded this yardage total in six of his last eight games against them.
Meanwhile, the model predicts a standout performance for rookie Ladd McConkey, with a projected 92.9 receiving yards. This total is more than 20 yards above the oddsmakers' yardage line, suggesting McConkey could top 71 receiving yards in his seventh game of the season. In fact, McConkey should see double-digit targets on Friday night, making him an intriguing option for fantasy football players.
The model's top Chiefs vs. Chargers NFL player prop picks also include Isiah Pacheco, the No. 1 running back for Kansas City. However, with Kareem Hunt as the primary pass-catching back, any second-half deficit could keep Pacheco on the bench for long stretches, potentially limiting his chance to top 50 yards rushing. The model is projecting Pacheco to rush for 38.6 yards, well below his sportsbook total.
In the Chargers' loss to Houston in the AFC Wild Card playoff game last season, McConkey had a stellar performance with a 9-197-1 line. This could indicate that McConkey might be a threat to the Chiefs' defense, especially considering that the Chiefs were held below four yards per carry in their two games against Los Angeles last season.
For those interested in making a bet, parlaying these picks at DraftKings offers +535 odds (risk $100 to win $534). New users at DraftKings can also benefit from over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket and $300 in bonus bets.
The latest NFL odds list Herbert's over/under for total passing attempts at 32.5, while Mahomes' over/under for his longest completion is 35.5 yards. With these predictions in mind, football fans are in for an exciting start to the NFL season.
Adam Silverstein, the website's NFL expert, is on an impressive 84-53-4 roll (+2577) on his last 141 NFL ATS picks. Be sure to check out the model's Week 1 NFL picks for every game on the FootballGuys website.
