Online Betting's Implied Probability: An Explanation

In the world of sports betting, understanding the concept of implied probability can provide a valuable edge for punters. This article aims to shed light on this important concept and its applications in various scenarios.

Implied probability is a conversion of traditional odds into a percentage format, eliminating the 'house edge and revealing the "true betting odds" of a particular event. For instance, in a simple coin flip scenario, the implied probability of each side is $100/$200, or 50 percent.

However, in sports betting, the implied probability will always add up to over 100 percent due to the house edge, or vig. This difference between the total implied probability and 100 percent represents the bookie's expected profit, often referred to as the over round. For example, in an NFL game with odds Miami -3.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers, the implied probability for each outcome is $110/$210=.524 or 52.4 percent. The amount over 100 percent is the bookie's over round.

This house edge can be seen more prominently when considering multiple bets. If we bet both Philadelphia and Indianapolis, we would automatically lose $4 for every $100 wagered in the long run. In this scenario, if we bet both teams, we would need to risk $104.8 to get back $100, indicating a 4.8 percent house edge for each dollar wagered.

Implied probability can be particularly useful in sports betting futures odds, such as the World Cup Soccer tournament. In the tournament, the implied probability for Argentina winning is 10 percent, Brazil winning is 20 percent, Germany winning is 11.11 percent, Italy winning is 8.7 percent, and the USA winning is 2.8 percent. The implied probability for the Field (any other team) winning is 50 percent.

It's important to note that if one party is paid differently for different outcomes, their implied probability changes. For example, if your friend gets paid $200 for every tails, their implied probability of tails coming up is only $100/$300, or 33.3 percent.

When it comes to online sports betting, some of the main companies in Germany with a license include Bet365, Merkur Bets, Betano, NEO.bet, and Interwetten. Among these, Bet365 is considered the best overall in 2025, followed closely by NEO.bet, Bwin, and Betano. The highest house edge (lowest payout percentages) in sports betting varies by bookmaker and bet type, but exact house advantage figures for each company are not specified in the search results. Generally, bookmakers with stronger odds and better bonuses like Betano and Bet365 tend to offer comparatively lower house edges.

In conclusion, understanding implied probability can help bettors make more informed decisions, especially in the world of sports betting. By converting odds into percentages, bettors can assess the true odds of a particular event and make more strategic wagers. However, it's essential to remember that the house always has an edge, and this should be considered when placing any bet.