Oil production will be increased by 137,000 barrels per day as per a report, starting from October 2025, in a decision made by OPEC+.

In a significant move, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies (OPEC+) have agreed to raise oil production by an additional 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) in October 2025. This decision marks the beginning of the gradual return of 1.66 million bpd in production cuts that were initially slated to remain in place until the end of 2026.

The decision to increase production may be influenced by the need to address the looming supply surplus and maintain market stability. However, the actual volume of the production increase is likely to be lower than announced due to pressure on some members to compensate for earlier oversupply and forgo their share of production hikes.

The agreement comes amidst a backdrop of relatively tight markets over the northern hemisphere summer. Despite warnings about potential market instability, oil prices have remained relatively steady.

The move will put increased pressure on member nations that rely on higher prices, especially those that can't pump more. This is particularly relevant for countries like Nigeria, where oil production issues such as oil theft, lack of investment, and pipeline damage have often resulted in underperformance compared to other oil-producing nations.

Recently, coordinated efforts by intelligence and defense agencies have nearly eliminated pipeline crude oil theft in Nigeria. This has contributed to a rise in the country's oil production. Nigeria's average daily crude oil production rose to 1.507 million barrels per day (bpd) in July 2025, surpassing the OPEC target for the second month in a row.

However, the country's federal government faces a potential threat to its ability to meet its planned budgetary commitments and sustain key national projects, due to continued underperformance in the oil sector. The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has issued a warning about this possibility.

Meanwhile, the decision to start unwinding the next layer of cuts reflects a tension that has dominated oil markets for months: forecasters are issuing mounting warnings about a looming supply surplus. This tension is further compounded by the fact that several countries lack spare capacity, which may further impact the production increase.

The U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell by 1% to $63.40 per barrel, while Brent crude also declined by 1% to $67.00 per barrel, both trading below Nigeria's 2025 budget benchmark of $75. The exact oil production output of any particular OPEC member for October 2025 is not specified in the available data.

The increase is expected to be approved following a virtual meeting on Sunday. It remains to be seen how this decision will impact global oil markets and the individual economies of OPEC member nations.

Oil production will be increased by 137,000 barrels per day as per a report, starting from October 2025, in a decision made by OPEC+.