NFC South quarterback shuffle delivers fresh faces in 2023 for all four teams.
The 2023 NFL season arrives with the New Orleans Saints leading the NFC South division with +125 odds as the favored team. The division is ripe for the taking as all four teams, including the Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, are introducing new starting quarterbacks following a poor season for all teams in 2022.
The NFC South division was the worst in the league last year, and all teams ended the season with losing records. The Buccaneers, who managed an automatic playoff berth as division winners, had an underwhelming 8-9 record. The Panthers, Saints, and Falcons ended the season with 7-10 records.
The NFL landscape has been reshaped in the last few weeks after Tom Brady retired, only to take a break from the NFL. Brady's departure from the Buccaneers leaves the division title up for grabs this coming season.
The Saints hold a slight edge over the Panthers (+240), Falcons (+400), and Bucs (+550) as the favorite to win the NFC South.
None of the NFC South teams have Super Bowl LVIII odds greater than the Saints at +3500. They're ahead of the Panthers (+5500), Bucs (+6500), and Falcons (+7500).
New Orleans Saints +125
Following the retirement of Drew Brees after the 2020 season, the Saints struggled to find their identity under Head Coach Sean Payton. In 2021, Payton abruptly retired and sat out one season before reemerging with the Denver Broncos.
The Saints gave Jameis Winston a shot at the starting job, but the former Buccaneers quarterback has battled injuries. He lost his knee two seasons back and missed significant time last season due to a fractured back.
The Saints opted for Derek Carr in free agency after parting ways with the Las Vegas Raiders after nine seasons. New York Jets, Panthers, and Saints were all interested in signing Carr, but he ultimately chose the Saints for a four-year deal worth $150 million.
Thanks to Carr's presence and a solid defense, the Saints are the consensus favorite to win the division at +125 odds.
Carolina Panthers +240
The Panthers hired Frank Reich to revitalize the team after three dismal seasons under Matt Rhule. Team owner David Tepper made a bold move by securing the #1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft in a trade with the Chicago Bears. The Panthers jumped from the #9 pick to the #1 spot with the intention of selecting a quarterback.
CJ Stroud, the standout quarterback from Ohio State, is the odds-on favorite to become the #1 pick in the upcoming NFL Draft at DraftKings. It remains uncertain if Stroud will quickly win the trust of Reich and the Panthers and be named the starter in the season opener.
The Panthers brought in veteran quarterback Andy Dalton as an insurance policy and mentor to the future #1 pick. Dalton spent last season with the Saints, starting 14 games following Winston's injury.
The Panthers are +240 odds to win the NFC South as the second favorite on the board, which seems surprising, considering the draft is still four weeks away.
Atlanta Falcons +400
The Falcons finished the 2022 season with a 7-10 record without Matt Ryan at quarterback after 14 seasons with the team. Ryan led them to a Super Bowl berth in 2016, but the Falcons were ready for a change in 2022. Ryan moved to the Indianapolis Colts for a one-season stint, but struggled with the offense, which resulted in a late-season benching.
The Falcons didn't fare any better with Marcus Mariota at quarterback. Mariota was benched late in the season, causing tension with head coach Arthur Smith.
The Falcons handed rookie Desmond Ridder a starting opportunity in December, but his results were mixed. Ridder displayed some promising moments but overall struggled with a 2-2 record as a starter.
The Falcons cut Mariota during the offseason and then signed Taylor Heinicke to a two-year deal that could be worth up to $20 million in incentives. The Falcons added Heinicke as a backup behind Ridder for the next season, but they know Heinicke could start if Ridder fails to develop in his second season.
Heinicke started nine games for the Commanders last season and posted a winning record with a 5-3-1 record. Overall, he has a 12-11-1 record in 24 starts with the Commanders. Over the previous two seasons with the Washington team, Heinicke completed 65% of his passes, with 33 touchdowns and 21 interceptions.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +550
The Bucs were linked to Derek Carr and Jimmy Garoppolo in free agency, but both quarterbacks signed with other teams. Garoppolo joined the Las Vegas Raiders to replace Carr, while Carr heads to New Orleans as the quarterback carousel continues to spin.
The Bucs expected Brady to retire this season, but they had limited options to replace him in the weak free-agent market. They settled on Baker Mayfield, but they weren't thrilled about their choices.
Mayfield is entering his fourth team in the last two seasons with the Bucs, after bumpy tours in Cleveland. The Browns traded the former #1 pick to the Panthers before the start of last season, but Mayfield struggled with the Panthers, who ultimately cut him after he recorded a 1-5 record as a starter.
The LA Rams gave Mayfield a chance to fill in for an injured Matthew Stafford towards the end of the season. With only a swift week to adjust and limited time for preparation, Mayfield starred in a Week 14 Thursday Night Football game against the Las Vegas Raiders, pulling off an extraordinary comeback win and reminding everyone he wasn't a total lost cause.
The Buccaneers inked Mayfield to a one-year contract valued at $8.5 million. This deal presents Mayfield with a possible final opportunity to demonstrate his remaining football skills and prove he's still deserving of an NFL starting quarterback position. If he flops with the Buccaneers, Mayfield could find himself demoted to backup duties or perhaps moving on to the XFL.
Pessimistic sportsbooks and gamblers doubt Mayfield's abilities, with the Buccaneers having the longest odds at +550 to win the NFC South.
