Moscow relies on fresh faces to advance its agenda in Armenia

Moscow has appointed Sergey Kiriyenko, a seasoned crisis manager with experience in Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Moldova, Transnistria, and Armenia, to oversee relations with the country ahead of its parliamentary elections in June 2026. As Armenia grapples with intense political maneuvering, both pro-Russian opposition and authorities are vying to rally supporters and attract new voters.

Kiriyenko's approach in Armenia appears to be different from his previous roles. Armenian experts suggest that he is favouring "new faces" and soft power to advance Russian interests. This strategy is evident in the increased activity of Russian media figures, such as Margarita Simonyan and Semyon Bagdasarov, local outlets like Sputnik Armenia, News.am, Graparak, and others. These outlets are expected to play an active role during the election period, pushing Russian ideology.

However, fact-checkers regularly debunk the content, and Russian involvement has been detected in a number of publications about corruption scandals targeting the current government. This raises concerns about the credibility of information being disseminated.

In the political landscape of Armenia, dollar billionaire Samvel Karapetyan has emerged as a significant player, entering the political struggle to change power since June 2025. Experts believe he was effectively "dispatched" from Russia. Karapetyan has voiced support for the church against the backdrop of worsening relations between the government and the top clergy, and later announced the launch of a movement called "Our Way."

If Samvel Karapetyan secures Sargsyan's resources, Kocharyan's supporters and Dashnaktsutyun may go to the elections as a separate bloc. An alliance between Sargsyan and the Armenian National Congress, and Bright Armenia is also possible. If both blocs make it into parliament, they could unite, though even together they are unlikely to win the 50%+1 needed to form a government.

The authorities, even in coalition with someone else, are also unlikely to clear that threshold. Analysts say Russia is facing a unique political situation in Armenia, where it cannot rely on traditional ties with ruling structures. This has led to the use of information campaigns and propaganda, including large-scale fake news stories, which have reached a new level in Armenia. These often appear on websites claiming to be foreign outlets that are created just days before publishing each new "scoop."

Some representatives of the church, whether willingly or under pressure, have played along with this strategy. However, the authorities and the church leaders remain at odds, creating a crisis that remains unresolved.

As the political landscape in Armenia continues to evolve, the role of Russia and its influence remains a key factor. The systemic opposition, including supporters of former presidents Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan, ARF Dashnaktsutyun party, Armenian National Congress, and possibly Gagik Tsarukyan's Prosperous Armenia party, may unite ahead of the parliamentary elections. The outcome of these elections will shape the future political direction of Armenia.