Military Strategy Should Incorporate Unconventional Combat - Here's a Plan

Military Strategy Should Incorporate Unconventional Combat - Here's a Plan

In the face of the growing challenge of hybrid warfare and gray zone conflict, standard U.S. military operations struggle to address these belligerent activities effectively. A more comprehensive approach is needed to integrate ends, ways, and means into a coherent campaign plan.

Recent advancements in the 2022 U.S. National Security Strategy and National Defense Strategy have made progress in detailing a more comprehensive approach to conflict. However, the current joint doctrinal framework primarily views these adversarial approaches as emerging challenges that require adaptive, integrated responses across all domains. Yet, their full inclusion and operationalization remain underdeveloped and evolving.

Dr. Burrell, an interdisciplinary studies teacher at Joint Special Operations University, sheds light on the strategic risks posed by gray zone activities, which he frames as persistent coercion below armed conflict, exploiting ambiguity and technology to bypass traditional deterrence. This underscores the need for integrated, adaptive responses spanning diplomatic, informational, military, and economic tools.

AI-enabled scenario planning, such as research with AI tools like CamoGPT, is increasingly used to simulate and anticipate hybrid war scenarios, including cyberattacks on critical infrastructure designed to disable military response capabilities. This demonstrates the importance of incorporating hybrid warfare into operational design through predictive, technology-enhanced modeling.

Hybrid/gray zone conflict is characterized by deliberate coercive but sub-threshold actions, such as espionage, cyberattacks, and proxy conflicts. U.S. doctrine acknowledges these as challenges requiring intelligence-driven understanding and calibrated responses short of open warfare.

NATO’s recent strategic adjustments reflect ongoing efforts to prepare for hybrid threats but also highlight a lack of full strategic clarity when balancing high-intensity war and gray zone competition. This institutional struggle to prioritize and fully integrate hybrid conflict concepts is evident.

Incorporating hybrid and gray zone themes into operational design involves leveraging intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities to understand adversary activities across domains, which is essential to joint force operational planning and command.

To effectively counter hybrid warfare and gray zone conflict, the U.S. military should:

1. Develop joint doctrine and frameworks that explicitly address sub-threshold conflict, defining operational parameters and response options.
2. Use AI-driven scenario planning and wargaming to anticipate complex hybrid attacks and coercive tactics.
3. Enhance integrated ISR capabilities to detect, attribute, and respond to gray zone activities rapidly.
4. Organize joint, multi-domain task forces trained for flexible, persistent competition below armed conflict.
5. Coordinate across diplomatic, military, economic, and informational instruments of power to deter and respond to adversary hybrid actions effectively.

This approach reflects current doctrinal trends emphasizing integrated, adaptive, and multi-domain responses to evolving gray zone threats within the joint framework and operational design. Adopting this framework would also better enable understanding of the activities of the United States' most important competitors.

Image credit: Roxana Davidovits, Romanian Ministry of National Defence (via SOCEUR)

[1] U.S. Army War College Research, "Gray Zone Activities: Persistent Coercion Below Armed Conflict," 2021. [2] CamoGPT Research Team, "Anticipating Hybrid Warfare Scenarios with AI-driven Scenario Planning," 2022. [3] U.S. Department of Defense, "Joint Publication 3-0, Joint Operations," 2018. [4] NATO, "Strategic Concept for the Defence and Security of the Members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization," 2010. [5] U.S. Department of Defense, "Joint Publication 2-0, Joint Intelligence," 2018.

1. The security of the nation relies on a more comprehensive approach that combines ends, ways, and means into a coherent campaign plan, addressing the challenges of hybrid warfare and gray zone conflict.
2. As hybrid warfare continues to evolve, special operations demand adaptive strategies that integrate diplomatic, informational, military, and economic tools for effective response.
3. To stay ahead in the face of gray zone activities, it's crucial to adopt AI-enabled scenario planning, such as CamoGPT, to predict and anticipate complex hybrid attacks and coercive tactics.
4. Enhancing intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities is vital for a quick and efficient response to gray zone activities across various domains in operational planning and command.
5. The concept of hybrid and gray zone conflict requires a shift in military strategy, organizing joint, multi-domain task forces for flexible, persistent competition below armed conflict.
6. In the realm of finance and investing, it's essential to understand the potential impact of political and economic instability caused by hybrid warfare and gray zone conflict on global businesses, including education-and-self-development ventures and casino-and-gambling industries.

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