Military instructors from Europe likely to be dispatched to Ukraine following a ceasefire, indicates Kallas

The European Union (EU) is showing significant support for extending its mission to train Ukrainian soldiers in war-torn Ukraine, following a potential ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia. This decision was welcomed by the EU's high representative, who emphasized the need for Europe to lead on security guarantees for Ukraine.

In a significant move, European NATO allies are anticipated to collectively reach the 2% spending target for the first time. This increased defence spending could bolster the EU's ability to provide more comprehensive support to Ukraine.

One of the key areas of focus for the EU's defence investments is air defence and drones, among nine priority areas identified. The EU has also proposed a €150 billion loan scheme to jointly procure equipment faster and at lower cost.

The extension of the EU Military Assistance Mission in support of Ukraine (EUMAM Ukraine) is gaining broad support among member states. The mission, which has already trained over 80,000 Ukrainian soldiers in various sites across Europe since its launch in November 2022, could form one of the security guarantees the EU could provide Ukraine in the event of a truce.

However, discussions over the extension of the mission reveal a rift in thinking among capitals. While some favour an extension after a ceasefire or truce, others would rather update the mission before the ceasefire. Sending European military trainers to Ukraine could be a part of these security guarantees.

The negotiations over security guarantees for Ukraine are primarily taking place within the Coalition of the Willing, a group of mostly European countries. Notably, some countries have expressed reluctance to participate without US involvement.

Meanwhile, France and Germany are considering a 'best athlete' model to boost European military production. This approach could potentially lead to more efficient and effective defence capabilities within the EU.

As the discussions progress, member states aim to define which of them should take the role of "lead nation" for each of these priority areas and negotiate contracts by the end of October. Germany is highlighted as taking a leadership role in defence transformation and cooperation within Europe.

The Estonian counterpart, Hanno Pevkur, and Latvian Defence Minister Andris Sprūds have both indicated their countries' readiness to participate in a training mission as part of the Coalition of the Willing. The Estonian counterpart, however, has expressed a condition that Ukrainian forces must be ready for the training before Estonian instructors are sent.

Ministers gathered in the Danish capital recently to discuss bolstering Ukraine's defense and closing the EU's military capability gaps. Kaja Kallas, the EU's top diplomat, argues that extending EUMAM's mandate to train Ukrainian soldiers at home could be a security guarantee.

In a related development, Donald Trump has indicated readiness to provide air and missile cover, and more intelligence sharing, but not send troops on the ground. This highlights the complexities and nuances involved in the global response to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.