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May 7 local elections to expose cracks in Labour and Tory support

Disillusioned centrists could hand the Lib Dems another victory—while Labour and the Tories brace for heavy losses. Will Reform UK and the Greens reshape the political map?

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2 min read
The image shows a group of people standing in front of a crowd, clapping their hands in...
The image shows a group of people standing in front of a crowd, clapping their hands in celebration. On the right side of the image, there is a podium with a microphone and a board with text on it. In the background, there are chairs, a banner with text, a wall, windows, and lights. The people in the image are likely members of the Liberal Party, celebrating their victory in the 2019 election.

May 7 local elections to expose cracks in Labour and Tory support

Local elections on May 7 will test the major parties as voters head to the polls across England, Scotland, and Wales. The Liberal Democrats are confident of extending their winning streak, while Labour and the Conservatives brace for heavy losses.

Ed Davey's party has set its sights on affluent Tory strongholds, aiming to attract centrist voters disillusioned with the current government. Meanwhile, smaller parties like Reform UK, the Greens, and the SNP look set to make gains at the expense of the two main rivals.

The Liberal Democrats are pushing for an eighth consecutive year of council seat gains. Under Davey's leadership, the party has shifted firmly against the Conservatives, a strategy that paid off in the 2024 general election. Back then, they surged from 11 to 72 seats, securing victories in Oxfordshire constituencies like Didcot and Wantage (39.8%) and Bicester and Woodstock (38.7%). Now, they're targeting prosperous areas in Surrey, Sussex, Hampshire, and Huntingdonshire—regions where voters once backed Rishi Sunak or Jeremy Hunt but now reject Kemi Badenoch's Conservatives.

Labour faces a tougher night. Polls suggest a 'toxic mood' among voters, with the party at risk of losing control of the Welsh Senedd and up to 1,000 councillors in England. Keir Starmer has been meeting voters ahead of the elections, but the party's expected struggles contrast with his earlier confidence. The Conservatives are also preparing for a poor showing. Their support has slumped to 17% in Scotland and Wales, leaving them vulnerable to advances from Reform UK, the Greens, the SNP, and Plaid Cymru. Meanwhile, Davey's leadership remains under pressure from some Lib Dem MPs calling for change, despite the party's recent successes. Beyond politics, concerns over fuel security have emerged. The UK's last known jet fuel shipment from the Middle East is due this week, raising questions about future supply stability.

The May 7 elections will reveal whether the Lib Dems can maintain their momentum in Tory heartlands. Labour and the Conservatives are both likely to suffer losses, while smaller parties stand to benefit from voter dissatisfaction.

For the Lib Dems, the results will test Davey's strategy of appealing to centrists. For Labour and the Tories, the night could deepen existing challenges as they head toward a general election.

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