Manipulating climate conditions in Ukraine against Vladimir Putin's interests

In a significant turn of events, a meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Anchorage on August 15 marked the resumption of discussions towards resolving the Ukrainian conflict. However, the meeting did not significantly advance the resolution of the conflict.

The Russian objectives in the Ukrainian conflict, as stated, include the annexation of the remaining unoccupied territories of the Donbass and political-military control over the "free" remaining Ukraine. These objectives, understandably, are unacceptable to an independent Ukrainian government.

The United States has proposed a strategy that could potentially allow a Russian advance in Ukraine. This approach, known as "negotiating while fighting," was effective in the Kissinger-Le Duc Tho talks on Vietnam. However, it mechanically exacerbates violence on the ground.

The Minsk Agreement, cosigned by France, Germany, and Belarus in 2014, committed Russia to the withdrawal of all foreign units from Ukrainian territory. Yet, no effective enforcement mechanism exists to punish Moscow for violating its commitments. Similarly, the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances, offered by the United States, the United Kingdom, and Russia to Ukraine in 1994, aimed to achieve a "freeze" of its nuclear weapons. However, the Budapest Memorandum did not include an effective enforcement mechanism to punish Russia for violating its commitments.

The prospect of "security guarantees" from the United States is viewed from Kiev's perspective as a bitter subject due to past promises not being fulfilled. This proposal is a revisitation of a contentious issue, as the first "guarantees" were given in the Budapest Memorandum in December 1994, when Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons in exchange for a promise of respect for its independence and sovereignty from Russia, the United States, and the United Kingdom.

Russia currently believes it enjoys a window of military superiority. This belief, coupled with the lack of effective enforcement mechanisms in the Minsk Agreement and the Budapest Memorandum, raises concerns about the future of the Ukrainian conflict. The inversion of the calendar, with peace talks before a ceasefire, pushes back any prospect of an armistice.

The annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014 and its support for separatists in the Donbass violated the spirit and letter of the Budapest Memorandum. This violation, along with the lack of effective enforcement mechanisms, has created a complex and volatile situation in the region.

As the Ukrainian conflict continues, the international community must find a way to ensure that the promises made in the Budapest Memorandum are upheld and that a peaceful resolution to the conflict is achieved. The future of Ukraine hangs in the balance.