Large Marine Creature Alters Polymarket Election Probabilities Favoring Trump Through a $26 Million Wager
In the world of political betting, two platforms - Kalshi and Polymarket - have been making waves with their predictions for the 2020 US presidential election. A French trader, going by the name of Michie, has recently entered the fray, claiming to have a significant stake in the outcome.
Michie, who was previously a resident of New York, has been active on a popular platform, engaging in conversations with other traders, including the political betting account @Domahhh. According to Michie, he believes that Donald Trump is a 75% favorite to win the election.
Meanwhile, the data from both Kalshi and Polymarket paints a different picture. As of recent days, Kalshi has shown a noticeable shift in favour of Trump, with the incumbent president having a 12% lead over his rival. This is in stark contrast to Polymarket, where Trump trails behind with a 19.4% lead.
This significant divergence between the two betting markets and traditional polling models may draw further scrutiny to the prospect of election betting in the US. The discrepancy could potentially indicate a shift in betting trends or an anomaly in the data.
It's worth noting that while Kalshi is only available to customers within the US, the restriction can be bypassed using a VPN. On the other hand, Polymarket is accessible to customers outside of the US. However, Kalshi requires far less money to create a significant shift compared to Polymarket, making it a more attractive option for smaller investors.
The conversation between @Domahhh and Michie ended abruptly, leaving many speculating about the reasons behind it. Despite extensive searches, there is currently no information available about a French gambler who placed a significant bet on Trump's victory in the 2020 US presidential election.
In a recent development, Kalshi won an appeal against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to continue offering positions on the election. This decision has further solidified Kalshi's position in the political betting market, adding another layer of intrigue to the ongoing race for the White House.
As the election approaches, the betting markets will continue to be a source of interest and speculation for many. The divergence between Kalshi and Polymarket, coupled with the involvement of traders like Michie, adds an exciting dimension to the political landscape of the US.
