Investigation Expands on Election Wagers Following Sunak Aide's Mistake by UKGC
The UK Gaming Authority has reached out to local betting firms, urging them to scrutinize substantial wagers placed on the prospects of a national election in July.
This comes after the prime minister's closest advisor, Craig Williams, was discovered to have wagered on this possibility only three days before Sunak declared a sudden ballot on July 4 to determine the forthcoming government.
The election call was surprising. According to UK law, national elections (referred to as general elections) must not exceed a five-year gap, but their timing can be decided by the prime minister. Sunak had no immediate obligation to call an election until December 2022.
It seems puzzling how this decision favored Sunak, whose Conservative Party has been lagging behind in polls since early 2022. In fact, bookmaker Paddy Power has odds of a Labour Party victory at 1/200, which implies a 99.5% probability.
Mishap of Judgment
The unexpected nature of Sunak's decision enabled Williams to earn 5-1 on a £100 (approximately $128) wager. Although Williams plans to run for an MP seat in Montgomeryshire, Wales, he has remained tight-lipped about whether he possessed insider information when he made the bet. He has neither confirmed nor denied it.
If he did, this could be a criminal offense, potentially carrying a prison sentence.
Williams referred to his actions as a "massive blunder" during an interview with the BBC last week, yet he declined to elaborate further due to an ongoing independent investigation by the UKGC.
In the meantime, the UKGC wants to know if anybody else linked to Sunak or his chief advisor has made a comparable blunder at UK sportsbooks.
Though political betting is illegal in the United States, it's legal in the UK, albeit a comparatively minor market.
Because of this, it's a market that's easy to surveil, and sportsbooks are highly vigilant regarding any proposition bet where the outcome might be known to a restricted group in advance. For the same reason, most US states where sports betting is legal refrain from allowing wagers on the Oscars, for example.
Politically Exposed
Under anti-money laundering regulations, sportsbooks must also maintain vigilance when they identify politicians among their clientele. Politicians, referred to as "politically exposed persons," carry a higher risk of involvement in bribery or corruption, and therefore money laundering.
This situation is damaging to the Conservative Party's struggling election campaign, which has adopted the slogan "professionalism, integrity, and accountability."
Labour Party chair Anneliese Dodds called the allegation that Williams was using privileged information "extremely serious."
“If this is true, then he has no place on the Conservative benches, if he is to win his seat. Even the mere suggestion of this – which could amount to cheating, a criminal offense under the Gambling Act – is highly corrosive to trust in politics,” she stated.
