International Climate Talks in Brazil Struggling Without US Participation

The United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP30, is set to take place in Brazil, with uncertainty surrounding its logistics in Belém, where accommodation prices are often unaffordable and the city's ability to manage the conference's logistics is questionable.

One of the major topics of discussion at COP30 will be climate adaptation, with a focus on the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) and a new climate finance target for adaptation: a tripling of adaptation finance flows from 2025 to 2030. The Brazilian COP30 presidency is also planning to launch the Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF), a new financing tool for forest protection in tropical countries, which does not rely on income from carbon compensation for fossil emissions (offsetting).

However, the use of carbon certificates from international markets to achieve the EU's 2040 climate target has drawn criticism for potentially weakening climate ambition. There is a risk that income from carbon trading may be declared as climate finance, overshadowing or replacing the need for actual, public climate finance.

The first global stocktake ended in 2023, and discussions in Belém are ongoing about whether losses and damages should be included as a separate topic in future stocktakes. The establishment of a fund for losses and damages (FRLD) at COP28 is a step in the right direction, but it is significantly underfunded and needs a long-term fundraising strategy before COP30.

The implementation of international carbon markets under Article 6.2 and 6.4 of the Paris Agreement at COP29 allows for large-scale climate compensation through offsetting. For bilateral carbon trading under Article 6.2, governments can agree on deals without transparency or control. This raises concerns about the effectiveness and fairness of these markets in reducing global greenhouse gas emissions.

Regarding the Just Transition Work Programme (JTWP), there has been progress in the Bonn interim negotiations, with civil society demands for social negotiations, human rights, the inclusion of care and informal work, and a timeline for phasing out fossils still present in current negotiating drafts.

The International Court of Justice (ICJ) has published an opinion stating that all states are legally obliged to protect the climate and ensure a clean, healthy, and sustainable environment, regardless of whether they have signed climate agreements or not. This opinion opens the door to the topics of liability and reparations, with new climate lawsuits against governments and companies expected.

Notably, the United States government will not participate in COP30 for the first time since the beginning of climate negotiations, despite being historically the country most responsible for global greenhouse gas emissions.

The UNFCCC is currently in a financial and legitimacy crisis, with many observers and contracting parties calling for reform. New NDCs are expected to be submitted before COP30, but it is not expected that the ambition gap to 1.5°C will be closed with the new round of NDCs.

In conclusion, COP30 presents both opportunities and challenges for advancing global climate action. The focus on climate adaptation, the launch of the TFFF, and the ongoing discussions about losses and damages are positive developments. However, concerns about the effectiveness and fairness of carbon markets, the underfunding of the FRLD, and the absence of the United States government are cause for concern. It is crucial that the COP30 negotiations result in ambitious and equitable commitments to address the climate crisis.