Insights for COP30: Three Key Factors That Lead to the Regular Failure of Environmental Treaties

The world is facing a critical environmental crisis, with global emissions on the rise and biodiversity dwindling. In an effort to address these concerns, the Brazilian government will host COP30, the 30th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, from November 10 to 21, 2025, in Belém, Brazil.

The Kyoto Protocol, a significant milestone in international environmental law, required Annex I Parties (developed countries) to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by 5% between 2008-2012 compared to 1990. Despite its success in phasing out 98% of ozone-depleting substances, the Protocol was criticised for insufficient depth in terms of stringency and strength.

One of the key lessons from the Kyoto Protocol is the importance of clarity in treaties. The European Union's Water Framework Directive, for instance, has faced poor implementation due to borrowing vague terms from other treaties. This highlights the need for clear and precise language in environmental law to ensure effective implementation.

Enforcement mechanisms are another crucial factor in the success of environmental treaties. Article 18 of the Kyoto Protocol called on the Conference of the Parties (COP) to address non-compliance and develop a list of consequences, establishing a compliance mechanism. Enforcement mechanisms have been shown to be the most statistically significant factor in determining the effectiveness of a treaty.

However, greater stringency in environmental treaties can increase costs for participating nations, requiring sacrifices in other interests or subjecting them to stricter non-compliance costs. This is one of the reasons why most environmental agreements have failed to produce their intended effects.

Regional treaties, on the other hand, have proven to be more effective and more likely to be ratified and implemented than global treaties. This is because regional treaties often have more specific and tangible goals, and the participating countries share common environmental concerns and challenges.

The Paris Agreement, for example, has a different approach. Its obligations are based on Nationally Determined Contributions, allowing each participating nation to set its own targets. This approach recognises the unique challenges and opportunities each country faces in addressing climate change.

The success of COP30 depends on a decision to learn from the past and embrace the cost of ambition and precision in developing international environmental law. It presents an opportunity to address global environmental concerns, learn from past mistakes, and work towards a more sustainable future.

COP30 also offers a chance to address the weakness of international environmental treaties that has rendered efforts to combat climate change largely unsuccessful. The conference will be a platform for nations to discuss, debate, and agree on measures to strengthen international environmental law and increase its effectiveness.

In conclusion, COP30 is a pivotal moment in the fight against climate change. It offers an opportunity to learn from past mistakes, strengthen international environmental law, and work towards a more sustainable future. The success of COP30 will depend on the willingness of nations to embrace the cost of ambition and precision in developing international environmental law.

Insights for COP30: Three Key Factors That Lead to the Regular Failure of Environmental Treaties